All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Pause–Pause–Pause
YesNo
Pause–Pause–Cut
YesNo
Pause–Cut–Pause
YesNo
Pause–Cut–Cut
YesNo
Other
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 00:23 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
With the March 17-18 FOMC meeting imminent, a March 'Pause' is effectively locked. The market's core debate is entirely focused on April. Despite the shock drop in February payrolls (-92k), the market has digested this over the past week as a temporary distortion driven by severe weather and strikes. Given that Core PCE inflation remains sticky at 3.0%, the Fed lacks the immediate impetus to pivot to a cut in April. Consequently, capital has flowed back from 'April Cut' (PPC) to 'No Change' (PPP), pushing PPP to 90c and solidifying the consensus for 'Higher for Longer'.
Sign up to view more information
Hedging
US 10Y Yield
DXY
Gold
S&P 500
The Fed's rate path directly dictates the cost of capital, serving as the anchor for global asset pricing. If the outcome (e.g., 'Pause-Pause-Cut' vs 'Pause-Pause-Pause') deviates significantly from market pricing (Fed Funds Futures), it will directly shock US Treasury yields (especially short/medium term), subsequently impacting the DXY and Gold. For equities (S&P 500), shifts in rate expectations exert a significant medium-term impact via valuation models and risk appetite.
