[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spreads for candidates like Thomas Chalifoux and Justin Story (given the ~$17k volume), and combined with the FL-09 district context, re-assess if current odds are fair and if the 'Other' option holds arbitrage potential due to dropout risks.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spreads for candidates like Thomas Chalifoux and Justin Story (given the ~$17k volume), and combined with the FL-09 district context, re-assess if current odds are fair and if the 'Other' option holds arbitrage potential due to dropout risks.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Timeline Check] Search for the official 'Qualifying Deadline' for the 2026 Florida federal elections and verify on the FEC website whether all listed options (Chalifoux, Story, Malavet, etc.) have filed their official Statement of Candidacy, to rule out the risk of the market resolving to 'Other' due to failure to qualify for the ballot.

AI-powered analysis for: [Timeline Check] Search for the official 'Qualifying Deadline' for the 2026 Florida federal elections and verify on the FEC website whether all listed options (Chalifoux, Story, Malavet, etc.) have filed their official Statement of Candidacy, to rule out the risk of the market resolving to 'Other' due to failure to qualify for the ballot.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Key Players Mining] Search for the latest fundraising reports (Cash on Hand) and endorsements (e.g., from Trump or prominent Florida GOP figures) for the FL-09 Republican primary, to analyze if there is a frontrunner with a significant financial advantage and determine if the market is underestimating a specific candidate's win probability.

AI-powered analysis for: [Key Players Mining] Search for the latest fundraising reports (Cash on Hand) and endorsements (e.g., from Trump or prominent Florida GOP figures) for the FL-09 Republican primary, to analyze if there is a frontrunner with a significant financial advantage and determine if the market is underestimating a specific candidate's win probability.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

Politics|$18.5k Vol|

105 days 22 hrs

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner - AI Found +12.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.30 11:59

Top Undervalued

+12.5¢

Thomas Chalifoux(No)

+7.5¢

Justin Story(Yes)

+3¢

Jorge Malavet(Yes)

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner AI analysis: • +12.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Market sentiment has experienced severe volatility recently. Thomas Chalifoux's advantage as the for...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Thomas Chalifoux

YesNo

42.5¢

57.5¢

30¢

70¢

0¢

+12.5¢

Justin Story

YesNo

37.5¢

62.5¢

45¢

55¢

+7.5¢

0¢

Expand to view all 5 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

2026-04-26 to 2026-04-29, Thomas Chalifoux's price dropped consistently from 46c to 25c, while Justin Story experienced wild fluctuations (dropping to 11c on April 27 before rebounding to 37.5c), as the primary dynamics became clearer and capital reallocated, with Story gaining momentum over Chalifoux. 2026-03-28 to 2026-03-30, Thomas Chalifoux's price dropped from 66c to 54c, while Justin Story's price briefly rose from 18.5c to 29c (before settling at 23.5c), driven by minor shifts in market sentiment and capital reallocation between the frontrunner and the main challenger. 2026-02-25 to 2026-03-12, Marcus Carter's price crashed from 66.5c to 7.5c, while Thomas Chalifoux rebounded strongly from 20c to 58.5c. The speculative bubble around Carter burst as the market likely realized his 2024 run as an 'Independent' could alienate the GOP base, causing capital to flood back to Chalifoux, the established 2024 nominee.