[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spreads for candidates like Thomas Chalifoux and Justin Story (given the ~$17k volume), and combined with the FL-09 district context, re-assess if current odds are fair and if the 'Other' option holds arbitrage potential due to dropout risks.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spreads for candidates like Thomas Chalifoux and Justin Story (given the ~$17k volume), and combined with the FL-09 district context, re-assess if current odds are fair and if the 'Other' option holds arbitrage potential due to dropout risks.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Timeline Check] Search for the official 'Qualifying Deadline' for the 2026 Florida federal elections and verify on the FEC website whether all listed options (Chalifoux, Story, Malavet, etc.) have filed their official Statement of Candidacy, to rule out the risk of the market resolving to 'Other' due to failure to qualify for the ballot.

AI-powered analysis for: [Timeline Check] Search for the official 'Qualifying Deadline' for the 2026 Florida federal elections and verify on the FEC website whether all listed options (Chalifoux, Story, Malavet, etc.) have filed their official Statement of Candidacy, to rule out the risk of the market resolving to 'Other' due to failure to qualify for the ballot.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Key Players Mining] Search for the latest fundraising reports (Cash on Hand) and endorsements (e.g., from Trump or prominent Florida GOP figures) for the FL-09 Republican primary, to analyze if there is a frontrunner with a significant financial advantage and determine if the market is underestimating a specific candidate's win probability.

AI-powered analysis for: [Key Players Mining] Search for the latest fundraising reports (Cash on Hand) and endorsements (e.g., from Trump or prominent Florida GOP figures) for the FL-09 Republican primary, to analyze if there is a frontrunner with a significant financial advantage and determine if the market is underestimating a specific candidate's win probability.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$9,640 Vol|

151 days 21 hrs

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Justin Story

YesNo

20¢

80¢

25¢

75¢

+5¢

0¢

Marcus Carter

YesNo

8¢

92¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+3¢

Jorge Malavet

YesNo

7.5¢

92.5¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+2.5¢

Thomas Chalifoux

YesNo

58¢

42¢

60¢

40¢

+2¢

0¢

Howard Steven Rance

YesNo

4.2¢

95.8¢

5¢

95¢

+0.8¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.15 15:27 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Thomas Chalifoux, as the 2024 Republican nominee who previously won this primary, holds the strongest name recognition and infrastructure, making him the logical frontrunner; his current price (59c) reflects a rational correction. Justin Story serves as the only credible alternative (25c) given his military background. Marcus Carter's previous surge to 66c was a speculative bubble that has burst; his history of running as an Independent in the 2024 general election likely hurts his standing in a closed GOP primary, justifying his collapse to single digits. The market is efficiently priced with the total implied probability near 100%.

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FL-09 Republican Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

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