All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
70–80
YesNo
80–90
YesNo
100+
YesNo
90–100
YesNo
<60
YesNo
60–70
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 19:28 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the price action observed on March 17, market sentiment has decisively flipped in favor of the '70–80' bracket. This suggests that after digesting more granular leading indicators (such as state-level reports or ILINet proxies), participants believe the Week 10 hospitalization rate will show a steeper decline than previously modeled. While the market previously feared that CDC data 'backfill' would push the cumulative figure above 80.0, the recent sell-off in the higher bracket implies that the 'natural slowdown' factor is now outweighing the 'backfill risk'. If the Week 9 cumulative total sits around 77–78, and Week 10 adds only 1.0–1.5, even moderate backfill would likely fail to breach the 80.0 threshold. Fair value now leans heavily towards '70–80', treating '80–90' as a hedge against tail risks.
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Rule Risk
While the rule points to CDC FluSurv-NET clearly, there are two risk points: 1. Data delay risk; if data is not released by the deadline, it resolves to the lowest bracket regardless of reality. 2. Data revision risk; CDC data is often preliminary and subject to lag/revision. Traders must ensure resolution is based on the initial release vs. revised data (usually markets resolve on the initial print).
Exotics
This is a relatively obscure niche data market. Although flu data is a public health metric, the general public rarely tracks the specific 'cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000'. It is a typical niche market for data geeks or public health experts.
Movers
On March 17, 2026, the '70–80' option staged a dramatic reversal, surging from a morning low of 40c to 65.5c, while '80–90' dropped from 49.5c to 35.5c. This shift occurred as the market, approaching the Friday CDC release, likely incorporated signals of a rapidly cooling flu season. This alleviated fears that data backfill would push the total over 80, prompting capital to flow back into betting on the total remaining under 80.
On March 16, 2026, the '80–90' option saw a brief rally (40c to 52c) as the market corrected an initially overly bearish outlook, repopulating the risk premium for data revisions.
From March 14–15, 2026, '70–80' experienced its first surge (46c to 61c) as the market initially confirmed the flu peak had passed.
