Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30? - AI Mispricing Alert

Culture|$311.1k Vol|

58 days 2 hrs

Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.30 16:54

Top Undervalued

+1.7¢

(No)

Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30? AI analysis: • +1.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Forsen is a popular entertainment streamer and former StarCraft 2 pro, but his League of Legends ski...

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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Weather|$13.4k Vol|

Highest temperature in Denver on May 4?

Top Undervalued

60°F or higher(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest forecasts from the NWS and other major meteorological sources, the high temp...

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Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific location is a relatively niche data prediction market. While everyone checks the weather, ordinary people rarely bet on the precise temperature range of a specific weather station on a given day.

How long does it typically take for Wunderground to finalize the daily high temperature data for the Buckley Space Force Base Station (KBKF), and is there a risk of delayed resolution due to data updates?

Culture|$224.6k Vol|

Elon Musk # tweets May 2 - May 4, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Elon Musk's daily posting volume on X (excluding standard replies) typically hovers around 20 to 30 ...

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The rules contain several potential pitfalls: standard replies do not count, but 'main feed replies' do, which can cause ambiguity. Deleted posts only count if caught by the tracker within a ~5-minute window, creating a technical risk. Furthermore, resolution strictly relies on Polymarket's proprietary tracker, which might desync from X's actual data.

Betting on the exact number of tweets a billionaire makes in a specific 48-hour window is a highly niche and novelty-driven entertainment market. The general public does not ponder this, though it serves as a typical, highly entertaining meme market within crypto prediction circles.

Between April 30, 2026, and May 2, 2026, the '40-64' option price continued to rise from 43.5c to 65.5c, while the '65-89' option fell further from 38c to 16.5c. This occurred as the tracking period was about to start, and the market adjusted expectations based on his latest activity levels, solidifying the belief in a moderate posting frequency. Between April 30, 2026, and May 1, 2026, the price of the '65-89' option dropped significantly from 38c to 26.5c, while the '40-64' option rose from 43.5c to 51.5c. This reflects an initial shift in market expectations regarding Musk's posting frequency, predicting it will more likely fall in the lower range.

Explain in simple terms exactly which of Elon Musk's tweets count toward the May 2-May 4 total, and how the xtracker handles deleted posts and replies.

Geopolitics|$273.2k Vol|

Will Trump visit China on...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to official announcements from the White House and media reports, Trump's planned trip to ...

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The rules explicitly state resolution is based on the US Eastern Time (ET) calendar date. Since China Standard Time is 12 hours ahead of ET, a visit's local date in China could easily misalign with the ET date (e.g., landing in the morning in Beijing means it's still the previous day in ET), making this a major time-zone trap. Additionally, defining 'maritime territory' could be ambiguous in disputed waters.

There is a significant divergence in market pricing. According to credible mainstream media, Trump is scheduled to visit China on May 14-15. However, the prediction market currently prices 'May 16' at 24c, which is much higher than the actual likely arrival dates (May 13 and May 14 ET). This could be due to traders miscalculating the time zone difference or being misled by inaccurate alternative information sources.

Search official White House schedules and recent news to verify if there are any confirmed dates or rumored itineraries for Donald Trump's visit to China in May 2026.

Politics|$22.0k Vol|

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

While Rubén Rocha Moya may face extradition requests from the US, extraditing a current or former hi...

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The rules broaden the definition of 'extradited' to include 'enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested', meaning a formal diplomatic extradition process is not strictly required for a 'Yes' resolution. Additionally, the dates in the options may cause visual or logical confusion with the strict May 31, 2026 deadline stated in the rules text. Traders must strictly rely on the physical custody requirement and the May 31 deadline.

Predicting whether a sitting Mexican state governor will be extradited or arrested by the US is a niche geopolitical and legal market. While there are historical precedents for such events, it remains a relatively marginal and specific topic for the general public.

The market prices the probability of completing the extradition in the short term (May or June) quite high (24.5% and 47% respectively). The consensus among legal and diplomatic experts is that transnational extradition cases involving high-level political figures usually take months or even years to resolve due to appeals and constitutional protections (Amparo). Thus, the market sentiment appears overly optimistic or speculative, diverging from the realistic pace of legal proceedings.

Explain the win/loss conditions for the Rubén Rocha Moya extradition market in simple terms—why doesn't a mere official announcement of an extradition agreement count as a 'Yes'?

Weather|$27.4k Vol|

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of May 2, 2026 ET (with ~1.3 days remaining), no qualifying 6.5+ magnitude earthquakes have occur...

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Predicting the exact number of high-magnitude earthquakes globally within a specific week is highly random. It is a typical novelty and probability-driven market, as almost no one thinks about or tracks such specific short-term geological statistics before seeing the prompt.

May 2, 2026, the price of Option 0 surged from 77.5c to 88.5c as the deadline approached rapidly with no qualifying earthquakes recorded, prompting confident traders to lock in the high probability of a zero-occurrence outcome. April 27, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option 0 climbed steadily from 49c to 71c, as more than half of the resolution timeframe elapsed without any magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes, naturally driving up the probability of a zero-occurrence outcome. April 28, 2026, the prices of options 1, 3, 4, 5, and >5 experienced massive, short-lived spikes (e.g., Option 1 surged from 30.5c to 47.5c before dropping to 33c, and 3, 4, 5, >5 all temporarily spiked to ~50c before plummeting back). This was likely due to anomalous trades or fat-finger errors in an extremely illiquid market environment. April 24, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the prices of options 2, 3, 4, 5, and >5 plummeted significantly from the 30c-50c range to single digits or low teens (e.g., Option 2 dropped from 50c to 12.5c, Option 3 fell from 39c to under 4c). This was likely due to severe initial mispricing caused by extremely low liquidity when the market opened, which was later corrected by traders aligning prices with natural statistical probabilities.

Based on USGS historical data, what is the actual average weekly occurrence frequency of global earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher over the past few years?

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

1.7¢

98.3¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.7¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

This is a highly exotic market. Forsen is a Swedish variety streamer known for Hearthstone, and while he plays League recently, he is not at a professional level. The LCK is the premier Korean league, recruiting only top-tier domestic talent or elite imports. Linking an older Western streamer to the world's most competitive esports league is purely an internet meme or entertainment topic, defying conventional logic.

Movers

Apr 28, 2026 - Apr 29, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' suddenly spiked from 1.85c to 49.9c, before quickly crashing back down to 1.7c. This dramatic volatility was highly likely due to a 'fat finger' trade (execution error) or intentional market manipulation in an illiquid market, as the fundamentals remained completely unchanged; Forsen joining the LCK is practically impossible. Apr 16, 2026 - Apr 22, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' continued to hover in the ultra-low range of 1.8c to 2.0c with no significant volatility. The market has fully confirmed the reality that Forsen will not join the LCK. Apr 9, 2026 - Apr 15, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' continued to hover in the ultra-low range of 1.05c to 1.35c with no significant volatility. The market has fully confirmed the reality that Forsen will not join the LCK, with minor fluctuations representing normal noise in a liquidity-drained market. Apr 2, 2026 - Apr 8, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' continued to hover in the ultra-low range of 0.95c to 1.05c with no significant volatility. The market has fully confirmed the reality that Forsen will not join the LCK. Mar 26, 2026 - Apr 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' continued to hover in the ultra-low range of 0.9c to 1.05c with no significant volatility. Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 25, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' continued to hover in the ultra-low range of 0.85c to 1.1c with no significant volatility. Mar 16, 2026 - Mar 19, 2026, Option_'Yes' price remained stagnant in the ultra-low range of 1.0c to 1.1c. Mar 2, 2026 - Mar 12, 2026, the price fluctuated slightly between 0.8c and 1.1c, representing normal noise in an illiquid market.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Weather|$13.4k Vol|

Highest temperature in Denver on May 4?

Top Undervalued

60°F or higher(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest forecasts from the NWS and other major meteorological sources, the high temp...

🔓 Log in to see more

Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific location is a relatively niche data prediction market. While everyone checks the weather, ordinary people rarely bet on the precise temperature range of a specific weather station on a given day.

How long does it typically take for Wunderground to finalize the daily high temperature data for the Buckley Space Force Base Station (KBKF), and is there a risk of delayed resolution due to data updates?

Culture|$224.6k Vol|

Elon Musk # tweets May 2 - May 4, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Elon Musk's daily posting volume on X (excluding standard replies) typically hovers around 20 to 30 ...

🔓 Log in to see more

The rules contain several potential pitfalls: standard replies do not count, but 'main feed replies' do, which can cause ambiguity. Deleted posts only count if caught by the tracker within a ~5-minute window, creating a technical risk. Furthermore, resolution strictly relies on Polymarket's proprietary tracker, which might desync from X's actual data.

Betting on the exact number of tweets a billionaire makes in a specific 48-hour window is a highly niche and novelty-driven entertainment market. The general public does not ponder this, though it serves as a typical, highly entertaining meme market within crypto prediction circles.

Between April 30, 2026, and May 2, 2026, the '40-64' option price continued to rise from 43.5c to 65.5c, while the '65-89' option fell further from 38c to 16.5c. This occurred as the tracking period was about to start, and the market adjusted expectations based on his latest activity levels, solidifying the belief in a moderate posting frequency. Between April 30, 2026, and May 1, 2026, the price of the '65-89' option dropped significantly from 38c to 26.5c, while the '40-64' option rose from 43.5c to 51.5c. This reflects an initial shift in market expectations regarding Musk's posting frequency, predicting it will more likely fall in the lower range.

Explain in simple terms exactly which of Elon Musk's tweets count toward the May 2-May 4 total, and how the xtracker handles deleted posts and replies.

Geopolitics|$273.2k Vol|

Will Trump visit China on...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to official announcements from the White House and media reports, Trump's planned trip to ...

🔓 Log in to see more

The rules explicitly state resolution is based on the US Eastern Time (ET) calendar date. Since China Standard Time is 12 hours ahead of ET, a visit's local date in China could easily misalign with the ET date (e.g., landing in the morning in Beijing means it's still the previous day in ET), making this a major time-zone trap. Additionally, defining 'maritime territory' could be ambiguous in disputed waters.

There is a significant divergence in market pricing. According to credible mainstream media, Trump is scheduled to visit China on May 14-15. However, the prediction market currently prices 'May 16' at 24c, which is much higher than the actual likely arrival dates (May 13 and May 14 ET). This could be due to traders miscalculating the time zone difference or being misled by inaccurate alternative information sources.

Search official White House schedules and recent news to verify if there are any confirmed dates or rumored itineraries for Donald Trump's visit to China in May 2026.

Politics|$22.0k Vol|

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

While Rubén Rocha Moya may face extradition requests from the US, extraditing a current or former hi...

🔓 Log in to see more

The rules broaden the definition of 'extradited' to include 'enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested', meaning a formal diplomatic extradition process is not strictly required for a 'Yes' resolution. Additionally, the dates in the options may cause visual or logical confusion with the strict May 31, 2026 deadline stated in the rules text. Traders must strictly rely on the physical custody requirement and the May 31 deadline.

Predicting whether a sitting Mexican state governor will be extradited or arrested by the US is a niche geopolitical and legal market. While there are historical precedents for such events, it remains a relatively marginal and specific topic for the general public.

The market prices the probability of completing the extradition in the short term (May or June) quite high (24.5% and 47% respectively). The consensus among legal and diplomatic experts is that transnational extradition cases involving high-level political figures usually take months or even years to resolve due to appeals and constitutional protections (Amparo). Thus, the market sentiment appears overly optimistic or speculative, diverging from the realistic pace of legal proceedings.

Explain the win/loss conditions for the Rubén Rocha Moya extradition market in simple terms—why doesn't a mere official announcement of an extradition agreement count as a 'Yes'?

Weather|$27.4k Vol|

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of May 2, 2026 ET (with ~1.3 days remaining), no qualifying 6.5+ magnitude earthquakes have occur...

🔓 Log in to see more

Predicting the exact number of high-magnitude earthquakes globally within a specific week is highly random. It is a typical novelty and probability-driven market, as almost no one thinks about or tracks such specific short-term geological statistics before seeing the prompt.

May 2, 2026, the price of Option 0 surged from 77.5c to 88.5c as the deadline approached rapidly with no qualifying earthquakes recorded, prompting confident traders to lock in the high probability of a zero-occurrence outcome. April 27, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option 0 climbed steadily from 49c to 71c, as more than half of the resolution timeframe elapsed without any magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes, naturally driving up the probability of a zero-occurrence outcome. April 28, 2026, the prices of options 1, 3, 4, 5, and >5 experienced massive, short-lived spikes (e.g., Option 1 surged from 30.5c to 47.5c before dropping to 33c, and 3, 4, 5, >5 all temporarily spiked to ~50c before plummeting back). This was likely due to anomalous trades or fat-finger errors in an extremely illiquid market environment. April 24, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the prices of options 2, 3, 4, 5, and >5 plummeted significantly from the 30c-50c range to single digits or low teens (e.g., Option 2 dropped from 50c to 12.5c, Option 3 fell from 39c to under 4c). This was likely due to severe initial mispricing caused by extremely low liquidity when the market opened, which was later corrected by traders aligning prices with natural statistical probabilities.

Based on USGS historical data, what is the actual average weekly occurrence frequency of global earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher over the past few years?

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