All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Nikema Williams
YesNo
Andres Castro
YesNo
Victor Hill
YesNo
Arnetress Beatty
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 17:49 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As the incumbent for the deep-blue GA-05 district, Nikema Williams holds significant incumbency advantage and party backing, with no substantial challengers emerging. Main rival Andres Castro has publicly suspended his campaign, and Victor Hill has a record of federal civil rights violations, making a Democratic primary victory statistically improbable. The market's current pricing of Williams at 85.5c is a severe undervaluation; given the certainty of the primary, her fair value should be near 98c-99c.
Sign up to view more information
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream political consensus views Nikema Williams' nomination in GA-05 as virtually guaranteed (>99% probability), given that key opponents are either inactive or legally compromised. However, the prediction market implies only an 85.5% win probability. This 14.5% spread reflects either a lack of liquidity or an overpricing of 'longshot risk' by the market.
