All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Woo Sang-ho
YesNo
Kim Jin-tae
YesNo
Lee Kwang-jae
YesNo
Lee Chul-gyu
YesNo
Kweon Seong-dong
YesNo
Kim Wan-seop
YesNo
Song Gi-heon
YesNo
Kim Do-kyun
YesNo
Won Chang-muk
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 14:20 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although the election is about 3 months away, the market and polling fundamentals show a lopsided race. Multiple authoritative polls in February 2026 (e.g., MBC Gangwon Joint Survey) consistently show Woo Sang-ho leading incumbent Kim Jin-tae by a 12-14% margin (approx. 45-50% vs. 31-37%), well outside the margin of error. Furthermore, context clues regarding the 'Lee Jae-myung administration' suggest a strong political tailwind for the Democratic candidate. Incumbent Kim Jin-tae suffers from net-negative approval ratings, and key potential rival Lee Kwang-jae has declared non-candidacy, likely consolidating opposition support behind Woo. Given the stability of the lead and time decay working against the trailer, Woo's fair value is pegged around 90c, while the withdrawn Lee Kwang-jae is valued at 0.
Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No Lee Kwang-jae'
Plan Description:
Lee Kwang-jae has officially declared non-candidacy in February, and recent polls have already excluded him. His 'Yes' price currently sits at ~1c, meaning buying 'No' (at ~99c) is a virtually risk-free yield. While the annualized return is modest (~4.6%), this represents a delayed market reaction to his withdrawal and is a high-certainty opportunity.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 1¢
|Annualized yield: 4.6%
