The rules exclude replies but note that replies recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker, which could cause resolution disputes. Furthermore, settlement heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker.polymarket.com). Any tracker downtime or missed data (e.g., posts deleted before being captured) creates a risk of discrepancy with actual X data.

This is a typical novelty market for prediction platforms. For the general public, unless specifically incentivized, absolutely no one would care about or predict the exact number of tweets posted by the White House account in a single week, making it quite exotic.

Between 17:43 on May 1 and 02:23 on May 2, 2026, the '200+' option recovered from 21c to 25.5c, while the '160-179' option fell from 21c to 18c. This was likely due to a slight acceleration in the actual posting pace, leading to increased market expectations for the upper bracket. Between 07:58 and 18:48 on May 1, 2026, the '180-199' option surged from 36c to 62.5c, while the '160-179' option plummeted from 43.5c to 13c (before recovering slightly to 17c). This was driven by the clarity of the posting pace, giving the market confidence that the total will exceed 179 and prompting a massive shift of capital into the 180-199 bracket. Between April 30 and May 1, 2026, the '160-179' option plummeted from 43.5c to 13c, while the '180-199' option rose from 27.5c to 47c. The '200+' option also saw gains. This was driven by a continued high rate of White House posts, which eliminated the possibility of lower brackets and forced capital into higher projections. Between April 28 and April 30, 2026, the '180-199' option rose from 24c to 42.5c, and the '200+' option surged from 7c to 25c, while '160-179' and '140-159' plummeted by over 30c from their highs. This was driven by actual tracker data showing a faster-than-expected posting rate as the period progressed, causing an upward shift in volume projections. Between 06:03 and 16:03 on April 28, 2026, the price of the '160-179' option surged from 38c to 58c, '180-199' surged from 23.5c to 44c, and '200+' surged from 14.5c to 45c. This suggests market expectations of a significantly higher posting frequency, likely due to breaking news or an intensive promotional campaign for a specific event. Between April 27 and April 28, 2026, lower posting brackets experienced brief and anomalous price spikes at 16:03 on April 28, before quickly retreating. This was likely due to mispricing from illiquidity or large market orders sweeping the book.

The rules contain several potential pitfalls: standard replies do not count, but 'main feed replies' do, which can cause ambiguity. Deleted posts only count if caught by the tracker within a ~5-minute window, creating a technical risk. Furthermore, resolution strictly relies on Polymarket's proprietary tracker, which might desync from X's actual data.

Betting on the exact number of tweets a billionaire makes in a specific 48-hour window is a highly niche and novelty-driven entertainment market. The general public does not ponder this, though it serves as a typical, highly entertaining meme market within crypto prediction circles.

Between April 30, 2026, and May 2, 2026, the '40-64' option price rose from 43.5c to 55c, while the '65-89' option fell from 38c to 25c. This occurred as the tracking period approached and the market adjusted expectations based on his recent activity levels, leaning towards a moderate-to-lower posting frequency. Between April 30, 2026, and May 1, 2026, the price of the '65-89' option dropped significantly from 38c to 26.5c, while the '40-64' option rose from 43.5c to 51.5c. This reflects a shift in market expectations regarding Musk's posting frequency during the specified period, predicting it will more likely fall in the lower range.

Apr 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, Nott'm Forest's price surged from 21.65c to 32.95c (an increase of >11c), while Aston Villa dropped from 46.5c to 37c, likely due to semi-final first leg results causing a major shift in market sentiment. Apr 28, 2026 - Apr 30, 2026, prices across all options remained stable with maximum fluctuations for a single team under 2c, as the market maintained steady expectations during the semi-finals. Apr 26, 2026 - Apr 29, 2026, prices across all options remained stable with maximum fluctuations for a single team under 4c, as the market maintained steady expectations during the semi-finals. Apr 25, 2026 - Apr 28, 2026, prices across all options remained stable with maximum daily fluctuations for a single team under 5c, as the market maintained steady expectations during the semi-finals. Apr 24, 2026 - Apr 27, 2026, prices across all options remained extremely stable, with Aston Villa dropping slightly by 4c and Nott'm Forest rising by nearly 3c, as the market maintained steady expectations during the semi-finals. Apr 18, 2026 - Apr 24, 2026, prices across all options remained extremely stable with maximum fluctuations under 2c, as the market maintains steady expectations ahead of the semi-finals. Apr 16, 2026 - Apr 17, 2026, driven by the UEL quarter-final second leg results, the final four were confirmed, causing capital from eliminated teams to flow into the qualifiers. Nott'm Forest surged from 8.8c to 19.4c (a move >10c), Braga jumped from 3.75c to 11.6c, and Aston Villa solidified its lead at 51.5c. Apr 13, 2026 - Apr 16, 2026, prices across all options remained stable with no single team fluctuating more than 10c, as the market holds steady ahead of the quarter-final second legs. Apr 11, 2026 - Apr 14, 2026, prices across all options remained stable, with Aston Villa rising slightly by 4c to 44.5c. No option moved more than 5c as the market maintains a holding pattern between the first and second legs of the quarter-finals. Apr 9, 2026 - Apr 11, 2026, the market repriced following the Europa League quarter-final first leg results. Aston Villa rose to 40.5c and Freiburg to 12.35c, while Bologna and Celta plummeted to 1.1c and 1.65c respectively, reflecting heavy first-leg losses, though max fluctuations stayed under 10c. Apr 7, 2026 - Apr 9, 2026, prices across all options continued to remain extremely stable with maximum fluctuations under 2c, as the market maintained a holding pattern before the quarter-finals began. Mar 29, 2026 - Apr 5, 2026, prices across all options remained stable with maximum fluctuations under 2c (e.g., Nott'm Forest fluctuating slightly in the 7-9c range), as the market awaited the next round of matches. Mar 19, 2026 - Mar 20, 2026, driven directly by the Round of 16 second leg results, surviving teams underwent a sharp repricing. As half the field was eliminated, capital consolidated into the qualifiers, causing Real Betis to surge from 9.5c to 15.5c and Aston Villa to jump from 28c to 33c.

OpenAI's IPO valuation will directly and significantly impact the stock price of its largest investor, Microsoft (MSFT), as it reprices the value of their massive equity stake. Furthermore, as a bellwether for the AI industry, a high valuation for OpenAI would boost sentiment across the entire AI sector (e.g., NVDA) and the Nasdaq 100. Conversely, if the IPO fails to materialize or valuation misses expectations, it could shock the 'AI bubble' narrative.