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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Geoff Duncan
YesNo
Mike Thurmond
YesNo
Keisha Lance Bottoms
YesNo
Jason Esteves
YesNo
Ruwa Romman
YesNo
Derrick Jackson
YesNo
Olujimi Brown
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.11 22:35 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Following the conclusion of qualifying on March 6, 2026, the field is set. Keisha Lance Bottoms (KLB) maintains a commanding lead in all polling (~40%) with the highest name ID; while Georgia's 50% runoff rule places a ceiling on her price, her probability of winning the nomination should be around 80%. A major market dislocation exists: Mike Thurmond is polling second (11-25%), has qualified, and is actively campaigning, yet is priced at a negligible 1c. Conversely, Jason Esteves is trading at a premium (21c) despite single-digit polling (3-10%), a valuation unsupported by data. Ruwa Romman dropped out on Feb 26 to run for State Senate, rendering her value 0.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists between market pricing and mainstream polling, specifically regarding the second-tier hierarchy. Polls (e.g., Emerson, Frederick) consistently place Mike Thurmond (11%-25%) in second place, well ahead of Jason Esteves (3%-10%). However, the prediction market prices Esteves at 21c (implying 2nd place) and Thurmond at 1c (implying last place). This inversion is highly anomalous and suggests a market misjudgment of Thurmond's campaign viability, despite news confirming he has qualified and is actively campaigning.
