All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Mike Collins
YesNo
Derek Dooley
YesNo
Earl Carter
YesNo
Christina Loren Clement
YesNo
Rick Temple
YesNo
Jonathan McColumn
YesNo
Vinson Watkins
YesNo
Reagan Box
YesNo
Christoph La'Flare Chapman
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 13:28 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While Mike Collins remains the clear frontrunner, the market is undergoing a significant sentiment correction. Derek Dooley's price has nearly doubled in the last three days (from ~9c to 15.4c) coinciding with a drop in Collins, signaling a consolidation of the anti-Collins vote. Given the potential mobilization of the Kemp machine, Dooley's current price of 15c has upside (fair value ~20c), whereas Collins' previous pricing at 85c was priced for perfection; his current 77.5c still carries a slight premium and needs to adjust downward to reflect the tightening competitive landscape.
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Rule Risk
This event carries a medium risk due to the potential misalignment between Georgia's election laws and the market's expiration date. Georgia requires a '50% + 1' majority to avoid a runoff. With three strong contenders (Derek Dooley, Mike Collins, Earl Carter), it is highly probable that no single candidate will secure an outright victory on the May 19th primary, triggering a runoff on June 16th. The market expiration is listed as May 19th. Unless the platform has explicit rules to 'extend' the market in the event of a runoff, or clearly defines 'Winner' as the plurality vote-getter versus the eventual nominee, this creates significant ambiguity for settlement.
