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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Josh Tenorio
YesNo
Joe S. San Agustin
YesNo
Therese Terlaje
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 17:36 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market landscape has fundamentally shifted. Although mid-February media reports still described the race as a 'two-way contest' between Tenorio and San Agustin, Therese Terlaje's current price of 62 cents indicates she has likely entered the race or is imminent. As the Speaker of the Guam Legislature and a consistent top vote-getter, Terlaje holds immense popularity and a clean image, positioning her as the formidable alternative to incumbent Lt. Governor Tenorio, who is damaged by a family PUA fraud scandal. Tenorio's price collapse from 65 cents in February reflects the scandal's impact. San Agustin remains a standard challenger with a base but lacks Terlaje's broad appeal. Fair value assumes Terlaje is the clear favorite.
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Movers
March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, Josh Tenorio's price spiked from 9.5c to 25c, before settling back to 19.5c. The reason is a market correction following a massive sell-off. Tenorio had previously crashed from a high of 65c in February down to single digits (<10c) due to an intensifying family fraud scandal (PUA Scandal) and the anticipated entry of popular Speaker Therese Terlaje. The rebound on March 13 likely reflects a 'Dead Cat Bounce' or confirmation that he remains on the ballot despite the scandal, rather than a resurgence in win probability.
Divergence
Significant time-lag divergence exists. Mainstream media (e.g., KUAM News) as of mid-February 2026 still reported the Democratic Primary as a 'head-to-head' between Tenorio and San Agustin, noting Terlaje had not announced. However, the current prediction market (mid-March) prices Terlaje as the dominant favorite (62%), implying the market has absorbed recent developments or insider knowledge of her candidacy that contradicts the month-old 'two-way race' media narrative.
