All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
YesNo
Toy Story 5
YesNo
Avengers: Doomsday
YesNo
The Odyssey
YesNo
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
YesNo
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
YesNo
Dune: Messiah
YesNo
Project Hail Mary
YesNo
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
YesNo
Jumanji 3
YesNo
Wuthering Heights
YesNo
Wicked: For Good
YesNo
Scream 7
YesNo
Michael
YesNo
AI Insights:
2 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
1. **Absolute Dominance of Calendar Year Rules**: The core of this market is '2026 Calendar Gross'. Release date is destiny. 'The Super Mario Galaxy Movie' (April 3 release) has nearly 9 months to accumulate gross and avoids the direct summer bloodbath. It retains the strongest structural advantage, justifying a fair value around 40c. 2. **Summer Congestion and Cannibalization**: July is exceptionally crowded. While 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' is dated for July, it faces massive unlisted competition from 'Shrek 5' (July 1). Shrek 5 is a tier-1 contender that will cannibalize family audiences from both 'Toy Story 5' (June) and 'Spider-Man'. Consequently, Spider-Man's win rate is currently overvalued (market price 32c); fair value should be adjusted down to ~18c to account for a ~15% 'Field' probability. 3. **Pixar Undervaluation**: 'Toy Story 5' (June 19) launches two weeks before the July heavyweights, securing a valuable exclusive window. Its current price of 2.6c is a severe market inefficiency; fair value lies between 10-15c. 4. **The End-of-Year Dead End**: December releases like 'Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu' and 'Dune: Messiah' will have less than two weeks of gross counted in 2026. Their chances of winning a calendar year gross market are mathematically near zero.
Sign up to view more information
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream box office forecasts often cite 'Avengers: Doomsday' and 'Spider-Man 4' as top contenders for the yearly crown, based on 'Life-time Gross'. However, Prediction Market prices reflect '2026 Calendar Gross', which is a math/timing game. Furthermore, the market severely undervalues 'Toy Story 5' (only 2.6c) and the unlisted 'Shrek 5' (implied low Field probability), a divergence from the historical box office performance of these IPs (typically $1B+).
