Betting on daily high temperatures in specific cities is a common fixture in prediction markets, but for the general public, forecasting the exact temperature on a specific day in Ankara, Turkey, remains a relatively niche and specific event.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 14°C option surged from 14c to 35.5c, while the 16°C option plummeted from 27.5c to 9c. This was caused by the latest weather forecasts slightly lowering the expected high temperature for April 18, shifting the market consensus from the 15-16°C range to the 14-15°C range. Previously, due to the lack of sufficient multi-day historical data, no options had been observed to experience a severe price swing of over 10 cents.

Between April 16 and April 17, 2026, the price of the 18°C option plummeted from 22.5c to under 1c, the 19°C option dropped from a peak of 29c to 13.5c, and the 17°C option crashed from 18c to 0.3c. The reason is that as the resolution date nears, the latest meteorological models have ruled out the possibility of a significant cool-down, locking the expected high temperature into the 20°C-21°C range.

Predicting the daily temperature of a specific city is somewhat common on prediction markets featuring weather contracts, but a specific day's temperature in Wellington, NZ remains a niche and mildly novelty-driven topic.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of 18°C surged from 32c to 81.5c, because as the resolution date approaches, the latest weather forecasts clearly indicate that the maximum temperature is highly likely to hover around 18°C, ruling out higher temperatures and prompting a massive concentration of funds into this option. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of 15°C plunged from 19.5c to 1.75c, 16°C crashed from 22c to 6.55c, and 19°C dropped from 27c to 13c, because the latest short-term weather forecasts ruled out extreme temperature deviations and provided high confidence that the high will fall in the 17°C to 18°C range.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of the '72°F or higher' option surged from 72c to 95c, while '70-71°F' plummeted from 18c to 2.2c, and '68-69°F' crashed from 18c to 0.5c. This is because, as the date approaches, meteorological forecast models have significantly increased their certainty of an abnormal temperature rise, eliminating the possibility of lower temperature ranges. In previous analysis: No single-day price movement exceeding 10 cents had been observed over the last 3 days.

Between April 16 and April 17, 2026, the price for the 22°C option surged from 20c to 38c, as the approaching date brought more certainty to the weather forecasts indicating a high around 22°C. On April 16, 2026, the 21°C option saw a price increase from 20c to 34c before settling at 29c, reflecting short-term expectation volatility during weather model adjustments.