April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026: The prices of edge temperature options such as 8°C, 9°C, 10°C, and 16°C plummeted from around 25c to below 5c. This was driven by weather forecast models solidifying as the resolution date approaches, effectively ruling out extreme high and low temperatures. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026: The price of 13°C surged from 25c to 39.5c before retracting to 25.5c. This was triggered by specific weather guidance (e.g., KNMI) predicting a 13°C high, causing a short-term rally, though subsequent minor forecast updates redistributed probabilities toward 12°C and 14°C. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026: The 11°C option spiked to 30.5c before dropping back to around 3.4c, reflecting short-term speculation as weather models oscillated between 11°C and 12°C projections.

There is a notable divergence between the current market price distribution and mainstream weather forecasts. While forecasts universally point to a high of 11°C-13°C, the market assigns a significant premium to 14°C (25.5c) and 15°C (16.5c), whereas 11°C is priced at only 3.4c. This suggests that market participants are either hedging against unexpected warming or anticipating a specific microclimate effect at the Wunderground airport station (where tarmac heat can sometimes cause recorded temperatures to be slightly higher than general regional forecasts). [6]