Highest temperature in Amsterdam on April 9? - AI Found +31.5¢ Mispricing

Weather|$13.9k Vol|

2 days 6 hrs

Highest temperature in Amsterdam on April 9? - AI Found +31.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.06 21:35

Top Undervalued

+31.5¢

20°C or higher(No)

+30¢

19°C(No)

+9¢

16°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Amsterdam on April 9? AI analysis: • +31.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of April 6, 2026, with less than 3 days until the April 9 resolution, recent weather forecasts fo...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Weather|$16.5k Vol|

Highest temperature in London on April 10?

Top Undervalued

16°C or below(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The latest weather forecasts consistently predict that the highest temperature in London (including ...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

There is a significant divergence. Mainstream weather platforms (e.g., AccuWeather, Weather.com, Met Office) unanimously forecast a high between 13°C and 14°C on April 10. However, the prediction market prices the probability of '16°C or below' at less than 50%. This discrepancy is likely due to a lack of liquidity or market participants failing to update their expectations based on the latest short-term weather forecasts.

Based on historical weather data for London on April 10th, what is the frequency of the highest temperature falling into these specific brackets (from 16°C or below to 26°C or higher)?

Culture|$12.4k Vol|

#1 song on Spotify this week? (April 10)

Top Undervalued

Risk It All - Bruno Mars(No)

Raindance (feat. Tems) - Dave, Tems(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest trading data and daily streaming trends, the Yes price for 'SWIM - BTS' has appr...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

From April 4, 2026, 01:30 to April 7, 2026, 01:00, the price of 'SWIM - BTS' surged from 52c to 98.6c, while all other options (such as FYA, NORMAL, Raindance, etc.) plummeted from around 40c to below 1c. The reason is that as the streaming tracking week neared its end, actual streaming data trends became completely clear. The market corrected its previous severe pricing distortion and formed an absolute consensus on 'SWIM - BTS' taking the #1 spot.

Explain the resolution criteria and the conditions for defaulting to the 'Other' option for this Spotify #1 song (April 10) market using the simplest language.

Economy|$20.9k Vol|

Central Bank of Colombia Decision in April?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Market pricing has shifted significantly recently, with the probability of an 'Increase' dropping fr...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This event directly impacts the exchange rate of the Colombian Peso (COP). Unexpected rate hikes or cuts will cause significant volatility in COP pairs. The Global X MSCI Colombia ETF (GXG) will also be directly affected by changes in the cost of capital. The impact on the Dollar Index (DXY) is negligible but technically present within the emerging market currency basket context.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the corresponding Event to analyze the order book depth and spread specifically for the 'Decrease' vs. 'No change' options, and synthesize market discussions on recent Colombian inflation data to assess the risk of mispricing in current odds.

Politics|$15.8k Vol|

209 days 18 hrs

CA-35 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Incumbent Norma Torres remains highly secure in California's 35th congressional district (CA-35). Al...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

[Decision & Action: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Considering this market resolves in November 2026 (locking capital for over 2 years), calculate the return on the current odds. Convert the potential profit of "Buying and Holding Democrat Yes" into an Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) and compare it with the risk-free rate of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., 4-5%) to determine if locking up funds has a positive expected value.

[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment] Visit the Polymarket page and, given the extremely low current volume (~$1,456), analyze the bid-ask spread and market depth. Combining this with the fundamentals of CA-35 being a traditional "Deep Blue District," assess whether the current price reasonably reflects the Democratic Party's win probability or if there is a pricing deviation caused by illiquidity.

[Awareness & Verification: District History & Key Players] Search for the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of California's 35th Congressional District (CA-35) and the status of the incumbent (e.g., Norma Torres). Verify if the Democratic vote share has remained above a safe margin (e.g., >60%) over the last three election cycles, and check for any risks regarding redistricting or major scandals leading up to 2026.

[Decision & Action: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Considering this market resolves in November 2026 (locking capital for over 2 years), calculate the return on the current odds. Convert the potential profit of "Buying and Holding Democrat Yes" into an Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) and compare it with the risk-free rate of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., 4-5%) to determine if locking up funds has a positive expected value.

[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment] Visit the Polymarket page and, given the extremely low current volume (~$1,456), analyze the bid-ask spread and market depth. Combining this with the fundamentals of CA-35 being a traditional "Deep Blue District," assess whether the current price reasonably reflects the Democratic Party's win probability or if there is a pricing deviation caused by illiquidity.

Politics|$44.3k Vol|

209 days 18 hrs

Rhode Island Governor Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Rhode Island is a traditional 'Solid Blue' state with a strong structural advantage for Democrats. E...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Retrieve the latest order book data from the Polymarket event page to analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity depth. Combine this with Rhode Island's historical voting trends and incumbent Governor Dan McKee's latest approval ratings to assess the fair value and arbitrage potential for the "Democrat" vs. "Republican" options.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

20°C or higher

YesNo

36.5¢

63.5¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+31.5¢

19°C

YesNo

47¢

53¢

17¢

83¢

0¢

+30¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

On April 6, 2026, the price of 19°C surged from around 0.27c to 0.49c before settling at 0.385c, driven by updated weather forecast data converging towards this range as the date approaches. On April 6, 2026, the price of 20°C or higher rose from approx. 0.21c to 0.345c, reflecting the possibility of higher temperatures in some forecast models. On April 6, 2026, the price of 16°C briefly spiked from approx. 0.16c to 0.28c, indicating market uncertainty regarding the exact temperature point and rapid capital adjustments.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Weather|$16.5k Vol|

Highest temperature in London on April 10?

Top Undervalued

16°C or below(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The latest weather forecasts consistently predict that the highest temperature in London (including ...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

There is a significant divergence. Mainstream weather platforms (e.g., AccuWeather, Weather.com, Met Office) unanimously forecast a high between 13°C and 14°C on April 10. However, the prediction market prices the probability of '16°C or below' at less than 50%. This discrepancy is likely due to a lack of liquidity or market participants failing to update their expectations based on the latest short-term weather forecasts.

Based on historical weather data for London on April 10th, what is the frequency of the highest temperature falling into these specific brackets (from 16°C or below to 26°C or higher)?

Culture|$12.4k Vol|

#1 song on Spotify this week? (April 10)

Top Undervalued

Risk It All - Bruno Mars(No)

Raindance (feat. Tems) - Dave, Tems(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest trading data and daily streaming trends, the Yes price for 'SWIM - BTS' has appr...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

From April 4, 2026, 01:30 to April 7, 2026, 01:00, the price of 'SWIM - BTS' surged from 52c to 98.6c, while all other options (such as FYA, NORMAL, Raindance, etc.) plummeted from around 40c to below 1c. The reason is that as the streaming tracking week neared its end, actual streaming data trends became completely clear. The market corrected its previous severe pricing distortion and formed an absolute consensus on 'SWIM - BTS' taking the #1 spot.

Explain the resolution criteria and the conditions for defaulting to the 'Other' option for this Spotify #1 song (April 10) market using the simplest language.

Economy|$20.9k Vol|

Central Bank of Colombia Decision in April?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Market pricing has shifted significantly recently, with the probability of an 'Increase' dropping fr...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This event directly impacts the exchange rate of the Colombian Peso (COP). Unexpected rate hikes or cuts will cause significant volatility in COP pairs. The Global X MSCI Colombia ETF (GXG) will also be directly affected by changes in the cost of capital. The impact on the Dollar Index (DXY) is negligible but technically present within the emerging market currency basket context.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the corresponding Event to analyze the order book depth and spread specifically for the 'Decrease' vs. 'No change' options, and synthesize market discussions on recent Colombian inflation data to assess the risk of mispricing in current odds.

Politics|$15.8k Vol|

209 days 18 hrs

CA-35 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Incumbent Norma Torres remains highly secure in California's 35th congressional district (CA-35). Al...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

[Decision & Action: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Considering this market resolves in November 2026 (locking capital for over 2 years), calculate the return on the current odds. Convert the potential profit of "Buying and Holding Democrat Yes" into an Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) and compare it with the risk-free rate of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., 4-5%) to determine if locking up funds has a positive expected value.

[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment] Visit the Polymarket page and, given the extremely low current volume (~$1,456), analyze the bid-ask spread and market depth. Combining this with the fundamentals of CA-35 being a traditional "Deep Blue District," assess whether the current price reasonably reflects the Democratic Party's win probability or if there is a pricing deviation caused by illiquidity.

[Awareness & Verification: District History & Key Players] Search for the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of California's 35th Congressional District (CA-35) and the status of the incumbent (e.g., Norma Torres). Verify if the Democratic vote share has remained above a safe margin (e.g., >60%) over the last three election cycles, and check for any risks regarding redistricting or major scandals leading up to 2026.

[Decision & Action: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Considering this market resolves in November 2026 (locking capital for over 2 years), calculate the return on the current odds. Convert the potential profit of "Buying and Holding Democrat Yes" into an Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) and compare it with the risk-free rate of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., 4-5%) to determine if locking up funds has a positive expected value.

[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment] Visit the Polymarket page and, given the extremely low current volume (~$1,456), analyze the bid-ask spread and market depth. Combining this with the fundamentals of CA-35 being a traditional "Deep Blue District," assess whether the current price reasonably reflects the Democratic Party's win probability or if there is a pricing deviation caused by illiquidity.

Politics|$44.3k Vol|

209 days 18 hrs

Rhode Island Governor Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Rhode Island is a traditional 'Solid Blue' state with a strong structural advantage for Democrats. E...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Retrieve the latest order book data from the Polymarket event page to analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity depth. Combine this with Rhode Island's historical voting trends and incumbent Governor Dan McKee's latest approval ratings to assess the fair value and arbitrage potential for the "Democrat" vs. "Republican" options.

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