The title asks for the temperature in 'Seoul,' but the rules specify the resolution source as the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station.' Incheon is coastal and adjacent to Seoul, so its temperature may differ from central Seoul, presenting a potential trap. Additionally, the market strictly relies on specific historical data from Wunderground with whole-degree Celsius precision.

May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of '23°C or higher' crashed from 32.5c to 9.5c, as updated forecasts closer to the date significantly reduced the probability of an extreme high temperature. No other single option has experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents in the past 3 days.

Betting on the daily high temperature of a specific city is a niche but standard topic in prediction markets. While weather derivatives exist professionally, the general public rarely considers it as a betting subject in daily life.

Between May 11, 2026, and May 12, 2026, the price of the 16°C option climbed steadily from 10c to 24.5c, and the 15°C option also saw a significant rise, stabilizing around 31.5c. Conversely, the 14°C option tumbled from 34c down to 15.5c. This shift was driven by updated meteorological models that slightly raised the expected high temperature for Toronto on May 13, making 15°C and 16°C the more favored outcomes over 14°C. No other significant price movements were observed over the past 3 days.

May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026: The price of the 16°C option plunged from 37.5c to around 15.5c. The reason is that as the date approaches, weather models revised the expected high temperature downwards, confirming a cooler and wetter trend (around 14°C), significantly reducing the probability of reaching 16°C. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026: The price of the 14°C option climbed from 20c to 35.5c, as weather forecasts consistently reinforced confidence in this temperature range.

May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of 16°C surged from 19c to 40.5c, as the latest weather forecasts clearly indicated a high of around 16°C for the day. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of 15°C rose from 8.5c to 27c, reflecting its potential as a close alternative if temperatures fall slightly short. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of 17°C dropped from 32.5c to 20.5c, and 18°C plummeted from 15.5c to 4c, as updated meteorological models cooled down the earlier temperature expectations.

May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026: The price of 13°C surged from 23c to 37.5c, while the price of 15°C plunged from 27c to 10.5c. This was driven by a downward revision in the weather forecast for May 13, which shifted the expected high from 15-16°C down to around 13°C (55-56°F).