April 8, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the <70m option surged from 16c to 48.5c, while the 70-80m option plummeted from 66.5c to 40c, and the 80-90m option further dropped from 23.5c to 6.5c. This was caused by weaker-than-expected weekday box office actuals following the opening weekend, prompting a severe downward revision in weekend projections. Between April 6 and April 8, 2026, the '70-80m' option rose from 41.5c to a peak of 65.5c, while the '80-90m' option briefly spiked to 60c on April 7 before plummeting to around 15c. The '>90m' option collapsed from 45.5c to roughly 4c. This indicates initial market division over the film's second-weekend legs. As weekday daily box office numbers emerged, bettors adjusted their models to anticipate a heavier drop, firmly settling on the $70M-$80M range.

The rules explicitly exclude 'polite diplomatic language' and require a clear 'positive evaluation' (e.g., praise, respect). This subjective distinction could easily lead to resolution disputes if Trump makes ambiguous or merely courteous remarks.

This topic is highly absurd and extremely niche. Given Trump's typical political rhetoric, almost no one would forecast whether he would praise Allah before seeing this market. It is a pure novelty and meme market.

This event is directly tied to MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock performance and short-term Bitcoin sentiment. An announcement of additional Bitcoin acquisitions typically triggers noticeable short-term volatility in MSTR stock (depending on the scale and whether it involves dilution/debt issuance), while providing a minor intraday sentiment boost for Bitcoin.

April 6, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 85.5c to 99.1c. The reason is that MicroStrategy officially announced the purchase of 4,871 BTC on April 6, and some media outlets reported it on or after April 7. Many retail traders saw the news and rushed to buy 'Yes', failing to carefully check that the official announcement date actually falls outside the market's required time window (April 7-13).

The prediction market price implies a 99% probability that MicroStrategy will announce a Bitcoin purchase between April 7 and 13. However, facts and mainstream media reports confirm that the latest purchase announcement occurred on April 6. The market's extremely high pricing stems from a collective misreading of the announcement date and delayed news consumption, resulting in a severe divergence between market expectations and objective reality.

April 10, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the <8m option dropped significantly from 56c to approx 34.6c, while the 8-9m option surged from 27c to 45c. This was driven by Friday's early estimates coming in slightly better than the extremely pessimistic Thursday preview numbers, shifting the expected range up to $8M-$9M. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, as the film officially opened and early data was revealed, the market experienced a sharp reversal. The <8m option surged from 25.8c to 56c, while the 9-10m option crashed from 34.5c to 12c, indicating extremely weak Thursday preview or Friday estimate numbers. April 8, 2026 - April 10, 2026, as the release date approached and pre-sale data updated, market expectations for specific brackets swung wildly. The 8-9m option crashed from 48c to 18.5c on April 9 before rebounding to 30c; the 9-10m option surged from 16c to 33.5c on the same day before settling back down. This reflects the extreme volatility of early preview data. April 6, 2026 - April 8, 2026, prices for all options experienced severe volatility, with <8m crashing from 43.5c to 14.5c and 10-11m dropping from 44.5c to 18c. This was caused by the initial AMM liquidity pool distributing prices uniformly around 40c, which were subsequently corrected by real traders entering the market.

Yes. Early industry tracking and traditional media expectations prior to release typically had this demographic-driven film projected above $10 million. However, the prediction market has rapidly digested the latest Thursday preview and early Friday estimates, decisively pricing the expected gross down to the $8M-$9M range. This highlights a clear divergence between the real-time reactivity of prediction markets and the lagging nature of traditional pre-release tracking.

Resolution relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker.polymarket.com) with nuanced rules (excluding standard replies, including specific main feed replies, counting deleted posts surviving >5 mins). This creates a moderate risk of discrepancy between tracker data and manual counting on X, catching uninformed traders off guard.

Betting on the exact number of social media posts a specific public figure makes over a random 48-hour period is a highly niche, novelty-driven market that falls well outside standard event predictions.

April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 65-89 option surged from 46.5c to 78.5c, as the total post count steadily entered and is highly likely to remain in this bracket with the resolution time rapidly approaching, leading to strong market consensus. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the 40-64 option's price plummeted from 45.5c to 5.4c, because Musk's recent active posting directly broke the expectation that the final count would stall in this lower range. April 10, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 65-89 option surged from 46.5c to 69c, as Musk's pacing closely aligned with this bracket's projection near the end of the tracking window, driving strong market consensus. April 10, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the 40-64 option's price quickly dropped from a high of 45.5c down to 21.5c, as subsequent posts broke the expectation that the final count would stall in this lower range. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 40-64 option had initially surged from 24.5c to 45.5c, because Musk's posting frequency slowed down temporarily, shifting market expectations toward this lower bracket. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the 90-114 option dropped from 24.5c to 5.5c (before a slight rebound), as the observed posting rhythm failed to support expectations for such a high total volume.