All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
9°C
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
12°C or higher
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
5°C
YesNo
4°C
YesNo
3°C
YesNo
6°C
YesNo
2°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 17:30 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The core pricing anchor is the latest Wunderground (IBM data source) forecast for Ankara/Çubuk (LTAC) on March 19. Fresh search results show a forecasted high of 52°F (approx. 11°C) with light rain. While MGM (Turkish State Met Service) predicts 13°C for the city center, the airport (LTAC) is typically 1-2°C cooler, supporting the 11°C-12°C range. However, given that rain may suppress daytime heating, 10°C remains a strong defensive option. The market is currently overvaluing 10°C (36.5%) while significantly undervaluing the baseline forecast of 11°C (24.5%).
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Movers
2026-03-17 - 2026-03-17, the price of '12°C or higher' crashed from 44c to 11c, while '10°C' surged from 19c to 36c and '11°C' rose from 12c to 24c. The reason is that as March 19 approaches, weather models (specifically IBM/Wunderground) confirmed the timing of rain and a cold front, revising the expectation from a warm spring day to a cool, damp 10-11°C, causing a massive exodus from high-temperature bets.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market currently favors 10°C (36.5%), but the specific forecast from the resolution source, Wunderground (IBM Weather), for this location stands at 11°C (52°F). The market appears to be hedging overly aggressively for rain-induced cooling or is lagging behind the latest model updates.
