All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
9°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
6°C
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
5°C
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
12°C or higher
YesNo
4°C
YesNo
3°C
YesNo
2°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
26 minutes ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market currently exhibits significant mispricing. The primary resolution source, Wunderground (IBM data), forecasts a high of 44°F (~6.7°C) for March 20 in Ankara (Çubuk/LTAC), which rounds to 7°C. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) predicts an even colder 5°C, and Windfinder (GFS) shows temperatures hovering around 5°C all day Friday, as a cold front is expected to pass on Thursday. Despite this, the market favorites are 9°C (38c) and 8°C (31c), likely due to traders anchoring to Thursday's warmer highs (13°C) or outdated warm models. With the specific IBM forecast at 44°F (7°C) and downside risks to 5-6°C, the '7°C' option (trading at ~4c) is massively undervalued, as are 5°C and 6°C.
Sign up to view more information
Exotics
This is a typical weather prediction market. While routine for locals or meteorology enthusiasts, forecasting the specific daily temperature in Ankara is a niche topic with little novelty for the average global trader, unlike major elections or sports events.
Movers
March 16 - March 18, 2026, the price of '9°C' surged from 17c to 42c before settling at 38c, as the market seemingly consolidated around a milder median (possibly older ECMWF data), ignoring the updated cold front timing.
March 16 - March 18, 2026, the price of '7°C' crashed from 24.5c to 4c, despite this being the exact value currently forecasted by Wunderground (44°F), indicating a severe dislocation between the market and the resolution source.
March 16 - March 17, 2026, the price of '12°C or higher' collapsed from 30c to 3c, as extreme warm scenarios were completely ruled out by updated models.
Divergence
Critical divergence. Polymarket traders are betting on 9°C (38%) and 8°C (31%), while all major data sources point to colder outcomes: the resolution source Wunderground/IBM forecasts 7°C (44°F), and official MGM/GFS forecast 5°C. The market is pricing the event ~2-4°C warmer than the data, likely due to traders confusing Thursday's weather (13°C) with Friday's, or misinterpreting the 'History' resolution rule (which relies on actuals driven by the cold front).
