All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
10°C
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
13°C or higher
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
6°C
YesNo
5°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
4°C
YesNo
3°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
4 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to the specified resolution source, Wunderground, the specific forecast for Ankara Esenboğa Airport (Çubuk) on March 21 indicates a high of 50°F, which converts exactly to 10°C. Similarly, Windfinder (based on GFS) forecasts a high of 10°C, accompanied by rain and clouds, which typically suppresses daytime heating. Metcheck's 15°C prediction appears to be an extreme outlier. The market is currently overpricing '11°C' (32c) and '13°C or higher' (19c). Given the precipitation forecast, the temperature is more likely to settle in the 9°C-10°C range rather than exceeding 12°C. Therefore, 10°C is the significantly undervalued option (current price 18.5c vs fair value 35c).
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Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of the 11°C option surged from 18.5c to 32c, as weather models converged towards the 10-11°C range closer to the date, eliminating extreme heat possibilities.
March 17, 2026 - March 17, 2026, the price of the '13°C or higher' option plummeted from 26c to 11.5c (before rebounding to 20c), driven by updated forecasts showing rain and cooler temperatures, which significantly reduced the probability of high heat.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market pricing implies a nearly 20% probability of 13°C or higher and favors 11°C (32%) as the likely winner. However, the resolution source Wunderground's text forecast explicitly states a high of 50°F (10°C), creating a strong conflict with the market's heat bias. The market appears to be lagging behind the latest cooling forecast data.
