All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
14°C
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
16°C or higher
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
6°C or below
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
11 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the latest forecasts from AccuWeather (specifically for Esenboğa Airport LTAC), Metcheck, and Google Weather, the high temperature for Ankara on March 22 is expected to be between 11°C and 14°C (AccuWeather forecasts 57°F/~14°C, Google 11°C, Weather25 ~12°C). The market is currently extremely inefficient, pricing the extreme tails ('16°C or higher' and '6°C or below') as favorites (~25% each), which contradicts all major meteorological data favoring the 11-14°C range. Thus, fair value is concentrated heavily in the 11-14°C band.
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Divergence
Severe divergence exists. Market participants are betting on extreme weather outcomes ('16°C or higher' and '6°C or below' both at ~25% implied probability), while all mainstream meteorological models (AccuWeather, Google, Metcheck) consistently forecast a high between 11°C and 14°C. Market prices are completely detached from fundamental data, likely due to a lack of market makers or misguided retail speculation.
