2026-04-24 01:03 - 2026-04-26 08:18, the Yes price for 40+ plummeted from 67.5c to 4.5c, as more negative reviews were counted, dropping the score and stabilizing it below 40%, severely cooling market expectations for a score over 40%. 2026-04-23 00:08 - 2026-04-24 16:13, the Yes price for 35+ surged steadily from 24.5c to 98.6c, as the increasing review count stabilized the score above 35%, boosting market confidence. 2026-04-23 00:08 - 2026-04-24 06:28, the Yes price for 30+ skyrocketed from 24c to 98.4c, establishing firm support above 30%. 2026-04-23 00:08 - 2026-04-23 15:18, the Yes price for 45+ crashed from 25c to under 3c and remained low, as mainstream critics universally panned the film, destroying any hope of a moderately positive reception.

There is a slight divergence in expectations. The market currently prices the '60-61°F' option highest at 18¢, implying it is the favorite. However, the latest meteorological models (e.g., Weather25 and Time and Date) forecast high temperatures peaking at 58°F or 59°F, making the '58-59°F' range fundamentally more likely to occur.

While the title mentions Seoul, the rules explicitly state that the resolution relies on data from the Incheon Intl Airport station. Incheon is coastal, and its temperatures often differ from downtown Seoul, which could easily mislead traders who do not read the fine print.

April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of the 18°C option surged from 14.5c to 31.5c, while the 20°C option experienced heavy volatility, dropping from 14.5c to 8c before spiking to 23c. This was caused by the release of updated short-term weather models as the resolution date neared, prompting traders to reallocate their positions around the 18-20°C cluster.

Predicting the highest daily temperature of a specific city on a particular date is highly niche. Aside from locals or meteorology enthusiasts, the general public rarely considers this, making it quite a novel and exotic market.