Retrieve the latest weather forecasts for Atlanta on March 21, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the extremely thin Order Book ($5 volume), and update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risks based on current meteorological models.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest weather forecasts for Atlanta on March 21, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the extremely thin Order Book ($5 volume), and update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risks based on current meteorological models.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for the specific weather forecast for Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (KATL) on Wunderground and compare it with National Weather Service (NWS) guidance to verify if the resolution source's projected high diverges from the mainstream meteorological consensus.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for the specific weather forecast for Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (KATL) on Wunderground and compare it with National Weather Service (NWS) guidance to verify if the resolution source's projected high diverges from the mainstream meteorological consensus.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the market's negligible liquidity (~$5 volume), formulate a 'Stink Bid' strategy to calculate how to place low-cost limit buy orders on high-probability ranges like 72-75°F to catch potential panic selling or market volatility.

AI-powered analysis for: Given the market's negligible liquidity (~$5 volume), formulate a 'Stink Bid' strategy to calculate how to place low-cost limit buy orders on high-probability ranges like 72-75°F to catch potential panic selling or market volatility.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$6,025 Vol|

2 days 13 hrs

Highest temperature in Atlanta on March 21? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

78-79°F

YesNo

15.5¢

84.5¢

32¢

68¢

+16.5¢

0¢

84-85°F

YesNo

17.5¢

82.5¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+12.5¢

80-81°F

YesNo

25¢

75¢

34¢

66¢

+9¢

0¢

76-77°F

YesNo

14.5¢

85.5¢

8¢

92¢

0¢

+6.5¢

86-87°F

YesNo

7.2¢

92.8¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+6.2¢

88-89°F

YesNo

5.3¢

94.7¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+5.3¢

82-83°F

YesNo

23¢

77¢

18¢

82¢

0¢

+5¢

72-73°F

YesNo

4.05¢

95.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+4¢

74-75°F

YesNo

4.6¢

95.4¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+3.6¢

90°F or higher

YesNo

1.4¢

98.6¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.4¢

71°F or below

YesNo

0.8¢

99.2¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.8¢

AI Insights:

10 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on the latest weather models, the forecast for the high temperature in Atlanta on March 21 clusters between 78°F and 83°F. Crucially, the resolution source Wunderground (IBM data) currently forecasts a high of 79°F. Other major models like AccuWeather predict 80°F, 11Alive predicts 78°F, while FOX 5 is an outlier on the high side at 83°F. Given the resolution source's own prediction of 79°F and NWS forecasting 10-15 degrees above normal (placing it in the 76-81°F range), the market's current pricing of 82-83°F (25¢) is overvalued compared to 78-79°F (21¢). Fair value should be heavily weighted towards the 78-81°F band.

Exotics

This is a relatively niche weather prediction market. While weather itself is common, betting on the specific high temperature of a single city on a specific day is a narrow segment, typically appealing only to meteorology enthusiasts or traders seeking specific weather risk hedges.

Movers

March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026: The price of the '80-81°F' option experienced extreme volatility, crashing from 26.5c to 12c before rallying specifically back to 29c within 12 hours. This 'V-shaped' reversal suggests high sensitivity to model updates; the initial sell-off may have been a reaction to current freeze warnings, but traders quickly repriced the strong warming trend for the weekend. March 17, 2026: The '82-83°F' option surged from 17c to 29c, indicating a flow of capital betting on a stronger warm-up (aligned with the Fox 83°F forecast), which simultaneously pressured the '78-79°F' bucket lower.

Divergence

Significant divergence exists. The resolution source, Wunderground, explicitly forecasts a high of 79°F for Saturday, yet the prediction market is pricing the '82-83°F' option with a substantial premium (25%, nearly tied for top), contradicting the source's own data. The market appears to be chasing the outlier FOX 5 forecast (83°F) while undervaluing the consensus from 11Alive (78°F) and Wunderground (79°F), leaving the 78-79°F range undervalued.

Highest temperature in Atlanta on March 21? - AI Odds Analysis

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