This is a typical pop culture/celebrity gossip market. While the Met Gala is a major fashion event, predicting the attendance of a specific celebrity (Lady Gaga) is a niche entertainment topic rather than a broad societal issue.

April 22, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 46.5c to nearly 100c, as the actual recorded maximum temperature for the day was confirmed to be 23°C. April 22, 2026, the price of the 24°C option plummeted from 49.5c to 0.05c, because the day's temperature failed to reach the 24°C mark, entirely ruling out this outcome. April 20, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of the 24°C option previously surged from 26c to 49.5c, as updated meteorological models increasingly pointed to 24°C as the most likely high temperature. April 20, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of the 25°C option plunged from 30.5c to 17.5c, due to a slight downward revision in temperature expectations, significantly reducing the likelihood of hitting 25°C. April 20, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of the 26°C option plummeted from 25.5c to 4.95c, because weather forecasts gradually ruled out the possibility of reaching 26°C or higher.

While weather forecasting is a normal part of life, demanding the exact high temperature of a specific city on a specific day to fall within a narrow range is a relatively niche and highly specific prediction market topic.

April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of the 33°C option surged from 2.5c to 99.95c. The reason is that actual observation data on the settlement day confirmed the highest temperature reached 33°C, leading the market to fully price in this outcome. April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of the 32°C option surged from 19c to 38c, and the 33°C option spiked from 3.65c to 25.65c, while the 31°C option fell from a peak of 39.5c to 15c. The reason is that actual temperature readings on the settlement day or the latest ultra-short-term forecasts indicated even higher temperatures than previously expected. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of the 31°C option surged from 19.5c to a peak of 35.5c, and the 32°C option surged from 11c to a peak of 25c, while the 28°C option plummeted from 13c to around 3c. The reason is that, nearing the settlement date, the latest weather forecasts or real-time observations indicated a high probability of temperatures exceeding 30°C in Taipei, leading to a massive upward revision in market expectations. April 18, 2026 - April 20, 2026, no option saw a price movement of more than 10 cents, which remained within normal market fluctuation ranges.

Predicting the daily high temperature in a specific city is a niche but established category in prediction markets (akin to weather derivatives). While the general public doesn't typically think about Wellington's exact temperature, it is a standard topic for weather prediction enthusiasts.

April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of 12°C surged from 43c to nearly 100c because as the resolution time approaches (local time entering the evening of the 22nd), actual meteorological data confirmed that the maximum temperature did not exceed 12°C. April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of 13°C plummeted from 22.5c to 0.15c because real-time observational data showed that the probability of reaching 13°C has been completely eliminated. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of 12°C surged from 24.5c to 79.5c as approaching weather models became more confident that a cold system would cap the high temperature in the 11°C-12°C range. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of 13°C dropped from 35c to 17c as meteorological data showed a decreasing probability of reaching 13°C. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of 14°C plummeted from 15.5c to 2.85c because weather models essentially ruled out the possibility of a 14°C high for the day.