As of the morning of March 26, 2026, the 'March 24-27' window has less than two days left. Completin...

March 25 - March 26, 2026, the price of 'March 24-27' continued to drop from 12c to ~7c, as the time window is closing and the reality of legislative procedures crushed hopes of ending the shutdown within this period. March 24 late night to March 25 early morning, 2026, the price of 'March 28-31' surged from ~12c to 23c, while 'After March 31' retreated from ~79c to 65c. This was driven by renewed market expectations that the House and Senate might accelerate the legislative process before the weekend to end the shutdown, causing capital to partially flow out of the April expectation. March 23 - March 24, 2026, 'After March 31' crashed from ~60c to a low of 22c before rebounding to 36c; meanwhile, 'March 28-31' surged from ~12c to 43c. The driver was rumors of an 'agreement in principle' in Washington, causing capital to rotate aggressively from 'Long Shutdown' bets to an 'End of Month' resolution. March 21 - March 23, 2026, 'March 24-27' saw a brief rally (14c to 28c) as the market hoped for a rapid early-week passage. However, as time progressed to Tuesday evening without a vote, this optimism faded due to the reality of legislative lag, causing the price to retract.

With less than 5 days left until the March 31 deadline, although the Yes price surged to 10.25c on M...

This event is decisive for the crude oil market. A nuclear deal typically implies the lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil, releasing significant supply into the market and causing a sharp drop in oil prices (supply shock). Gold, as a geopolitical hedge, would likely face a minor pullback as tensions ease.

With roughly 4 days remaining until expiration, market expectations have completely hit zero. There ...

As a member of the 'Squad,' Ilhan Omar is frequently at the center of controversy, so speculation about her tenure isn't entirely random. However, this is not a routine cyclical event like a general election; it represents specific tail risk or political maneuvering speculation regarding an individual figure, giving it moderate novelty.

With only about 30 hours left until settlement, Musk's tweeting frequency has stabilized, and market...

This is a classic 'Novelty' market focusing on the social media metrics of a specific celebrity. While such bets are common in prediction market communities, for the general public, forecasting the exact tweet count of an individual is a niche, entertainment-oriented topic, distinct from traditional political or economic forecasting.

March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of the 260-279 option surged from 25.65c to 36.45c, as the deadline approaches and Musk's total tweet count is highly likely to land in this range, causing market capital to further concentrate here. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the 260-279 option surged from 10.45c to 32.15c. This occurred because Musk's tweet frequency noticeably slowed as time passed, causing the market to significantly lower its expectations for the final total and capital to rapidly concentrate in this range. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the 280-299 option surged from 14.5c to 28c. As the remaining time decreased, the probability of the final result falling into this range significantly increased. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the 240-259 option surged from 5.75c to 19.2c. Due to a further decrease in tweeting frequency, lower ranges regained market favor. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the 320-339 option crashed from 15.5c to 6.0c. This is because it has become difficult to reach this high range at the current frequency in the remaining time. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the 340-359 option crashed from 12.5c to 2.05c. The implied probability of high-frequency ranges collapsed due to time decay. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of the 280-299 option surged from 8.5c to 23.5c. This is because Musk's posting rate did not show the explosive growth some expected as time passed, causing market expectations to shift downwards, favoring lower total outcomes. March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of the 400-419 option crashed from 12.3c to 1.5c. The reason is the significant time decay effect; maintaining the current ~45/day rate makes reaching 400+ mathematically impossible, collapsing the implied probability of high-frequency options. March 17, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the 240-259 bracket suffered a massive crash, falling from 52.5c to 7.5c. This was caused by the tweet volume in the first two days far exceeding the implied daily average for this bracket, forcing the market to rapidly abandon low-frequency options and reprice towards higher ranges.

With less than 5 days remaining until the March 31 settlement, the anticipated Token Generation Even...

This is a market about a specific metric (Mindshare) within a niche industry (prediction markets/crypto data). While interesting to insiders, it is a very specific and relatively obscure metric for the general public, placing it in the upper-middle range of exoticism.

Mar 24, 2026 - Mar 26, 2026, the price of the 85% option continued its bleed from 21.1c down to 4.1c. The reason is that as the settlement date approaches without any new product or marketing catalysts, the previously unrealized bullish expectations have been fully digested, leading to accelerated time decay. Mar 22, 2026 - Mar 24, 2026, the price of the 85% option crashed from 27.4c to 6.3c. The reason was that the 'Monday Announcement' teased by the team failed to meet the market's high expectations for a TGE, causing speculative capital to panic sell as the time window closed and time value evaporated. Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 22, 2026, the price of the 85% option surged from 7.25c to 27.4c, driven by a Polymarket team member hinting at major news for 'next Monday,' which ignited intense speculation regarding an airdrop or token launch.