Betting on the exact highest temperature (to the whole degree) of a specific city on a given day is a very niche and novelty market. Ordinary people rarely think about or forecast such highly specific meteorological outcomes.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged rapidly from around 20c to 46.5c, while options for 25°C and above plummeted to near zero. This was driven by actual sensor data on the resolution day (May 3) showing lower-than-expected temperatures (only around 21°C by early afternoon), effectively ruling out the higher temperature ranges. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the market saw smooth adjustments as forecast models updated, with 23°C, 24°C, and 25°C initially holding the highest probabilities before expectations cooled due to increased cloud cover.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of claude-opus-4-6-thinking surged from 73c to 94c, driven by its sustained dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard and increasing market confidence as the resolution date approaches. Concurrently, other competing models (e.g., claude-opus-4-7-thinking, gemini-3.1-pro-preview) saw their prices plummet by more than 10c down to near 1c, reflecting their fading chances of taking the top spot.

May 3, 2026: The price of 22°C surged from 7.5c to 99.8c because evening had arrived in Beijing time, and actual observation data confirmed the high temperature was 22°C. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: Prices for 19°C and 20°C surged significantly, with 20°C jumping from 16c to over 40c, while 22°C plunged from 25c to 9c. This is due to real-time weather forecasts adjusting the expected high temperature downward to the 19°C-21°C range as the day unfolded. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: Prices for 21°C and 22°C saw increases of over 10c, as earlier weather forecasts predicted a stronger warming trend for May 3.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The price of the 25°C option surged from 36.5c to 49.5c, as the approaching resolution time solidified weather forecasts pointing to 25°C as the daily high. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The price of the 24°C option rose from 32c to 41.5c, indicating the market believes there is still a significant chance the recorded high will be 24°C. May 2, 2026: The 26°C option temporarily spiked from 9.5c to 23c before falling back to 14c, reflecting short-term uncertainty from intraday temperature fluctuations. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The 23°C option crashed from 23c down to 0.55c, as actual temperatures already exceeded 23°C, eliminating it as a possible winning outcome.

This is a prediction market targeting the specific high temperature of a single day in Chengdu. Aside from local residents or specialized weather derivative traders, the general public rarely thinks about or predicts this specific data point, giving it a moderate level of novelty and exoticism.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged from around 11c to 42c, the 21°C option jumped from 1c to 19c, while the 24°C option plummeted from a peak of 37c to 6c, and the 25°C option dropped from 16c to 5c. This is because, as the resolution date arrived, real-time weather data indicated that the actual high temperature for the day would be significantly lower than previous long-term forecasts (only around 21-23°C).