The rules exclude regular replies but include main feed replies, relying on a specific third-party tracker for resolution. These nuanced definitions and reliance on an external tool can cause discrepancies between the tracker's data and manual counting, potentially leading to disputes.

Predicting the specific range of tweets a public figure will make in a designated 48-hour window is a highly niche, entertainment-oriented market, extremely rare in traditional forecasting or financial analysis.

April 28, 2026 13:08 - April 28, 2026 15:18, the prices for the 90-114 and 115-139 options briefly spiked from 10.5c and 2.45c to 45c and 41.85c respectively before dropping back, while the 65-89 option plummeted from 37.5c to 21.5c before recovering to 36.5c, likely due to a temporary tracker data anomaly or large market orders causing extreme spread widening. April 28, 2026 12:03 - April 28, 2026 13:08, multiple high-value options (190-214, 215-239, 240+) experienced abnormal price spikes from under 1c to 49.95c before quickly dropping back, primarily caused by illiquid order books leading to mispricing or large market buy orders (fat-finger trades).

2026-04-27 to 2026-04-28, the Yes price for the 39.5–39.9 option surged from 30c to 67.5c, making it the new frontrunner, likely due to a recent polling data update pushing the aggregate higher. 2026-04-27 to 2026-04-28, the Yes price for the 39.0–39.4 option initially spiked to 53c before falling sharply to 23c, reflecting its loss of favor as the polling average moved up. 2026-04-28, both the <38.0 and 38.0–38.4 options experienced a brief and dramatic price spike to 50c around noon before immediately retracing, likely driven by a fat-finger trade or momentary market panic. 2026-04-24 to 2026-04-26, the Yes price for the <38.0 option plummeted from 20c to 4.45c, reflecting a sharp decline in expectations for an extremely low approval rating. 2026-04-24 to 2026-04-26, the Yes price for the 38.0–38.4 option crashed from 31.5c to 5.5c, indicating that the market views this low range as highly unlikely. 2026-04-24 to 2026-04-26, the Yes price for the 38.5–38.9 option dropped significantly from 57c to 32c, showing a shift in the expected center of gravity.

The rules contain a significant trap: if the fight is canceled due to the opponent (Johnny Manziel) or the promoter (Full Send Boxing), the market resolves to 'Yes' even if Bob Menery never actually enters the ring. This strongly conflicts with the literal phrasing of the title.

This is a crossover celebrity boxing match between a podcast influencer and a former pro football player. Unless someone is a specific fan of this influencer circle or entertainment boxing, the general public would rarely consider or predict such a niche novelty event.

April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped significantly from 53.95c to 42.2c. This was driven by UFC CEO Dana White publicly expressing strong doubts over the weekend about Bob Menery's willingness to show up for the fight, revealing he placed a $10,000 'No' bet on Polymarket, which triggered massive market concerns about Menery flaking.