Between April 6 and April 7, 2026, the prices of the 17°C and 18°C options experienced significant surges, with 17°C rising from 29.5c to 39.5c and 18°C peaking at 39.5c, while the 16°C option dropped from 22c to 11c. This occurred because, as the resolution date approached, weather forecasting models converged further, confirming a high probability of the maximum temperature falling in the 17-18°C range. Between April 4 and April 5, 2026, the price of the 17°C option surged from 16.5c to 31.5c, and the 18°C option surged from 12c to 25c. This was driven by the latest meteorological models consolidating the expected high temperature into the 17-18°C range as the resolution date approaches.

From April 6 to April 7, 2026, the price of '16°C' rose from 25.5c to 33.5c, and '17°C' surged from 20.5c to 30c. This was caused by the latest short-term weather models slightly revising the expected high for April 8 upwards, shifting the consensus to the 16°C-17°C range. From April 4 to April 5, 2026, the price of '16°C' rose from 16c to 30c, and '14°C' climbed from 15.5c to a peak of 28c. Meanwhile, '17°C' surged from 7c to 27c during April 4. This was driven by the release of updated short-term weather forecasts as the resolution date nears, locking the expected high temperature into the 14°C-16°C range, causing market capital to concentrate in these high-probability brackets and exit outlier options.

Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a standard weather derivative in prediction markets. While not as mainstream as political elections or sports, it is neither extremely rare nor bizarre.

April 5, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of 20°C surged to a high of 43.5c, and 21°C surged from roughly 14.5c to 41c. Meanwhile, 18°C plummeted from 25.5c to 4.5c, and 19°C dropped from 31.5c to 10c. This was driven by updated weather models solidifying warmer expectations and ruling out the 18-19°C lower range, converging on 20-21°C. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of 20°C surged from 16.5c to 30.5c as updated weather forecasts indicated a significantly higher probability for this specific temperature range. Concurrently, 17°C and 16°C dropped sharply due to weakened expectations of a cold front, leading the market to effectively rule out these lower temperature extremes.

Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a given day is a niche but standard fixture in prediction markets, even though the general public rarely ponders such micro-level data.

Between April 6, 2026, and April 7, 2026, the price of the '28°C or below' option continued to rise from 76.5c to 87.5c, while the '29°C' option dropped from 8.5c to 6.5c. This was because weather forecasts further confirmed rain for Lucknow on April 8, with high temperatures around 81°F (approx. 27°C), practically ruling out higher temperatures. Between April 4, 2026, and April 5, 2026, the price of the '28°C or below' option surged from 26c to 60c, as forecasts for rain and lower temperatures became more certain with the approaching date. Between April 4, 2026, and April 5, 2026, the price of the '29°C' option fluctuated, initially rising then falling, eventually stabilizing around 21.5c, reflecting market adjustments to the specific low-temperature value. On April 4, 2026, the '31°C' option experienced volatility, dropping from 17.5c to 4.5c before rebounding to 8.5c and settling around 7c, indicating that the likelihood of higher temperatures is being gradually priced out.

Betting on the daily maximum temperature of a specific city is a niche prediction market. Outside of meteorology enthusiasts or related professionals, ordinary people rarely predict and trade on the exact daily temperature.

April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026: The price of the 26°C option surged from 24.5c to 57.5c (settling at 52c), while the 27°C price fluctuated to 41.5c, and the 28°C price tumbled from 23c to 8.5c. This occurred because the nearing official forecast from the Hong Kong Observatory explicitly projected a maximum temperature under 27°C for April 8, with cloud cover and rain mitigating earlier expectations of extreme heat. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026: The price of the 28°C option surged from 10c to 32.5c, while the 27°C option spiked from 25c to 42c, as forecasts indicating a strengthening anticyclone aloft prompted the market to revise maximum temperature expectations upwards. April 4, 2026 - April 4, 2026: The '29°C or higher' option rapidly climbed from 4.5c to 22c, reflecting an increase in speculative bets on extreme heat by traders.