Weather|$32.3k Vol|
19 hrs 36 minsHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 19? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
26°C
YesNo
29°C
YesNo
27°C
YesNo
28°C
YesNo
30°C
YesNo
31°C
YesNo
25°C
YesNo
24°C or below
YesNo
33°C
YesNo
34°C or higher
YesNo
32°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 18:20 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the latest updates from AccuWeather and TimeAndDate (March 17), the maximum temperature forecast for Ezeiza Airport on March 19 has settled around 26°C-27°C (79°F-80°F). While the Spanish version of AccuWeather still shows a higher 83°F (28°C), most international models (including data typically associated with the resolution source Wunderground/IBM) indicate cloud cover for Thursday with temperatures slightly dropping or holding steady from Wednesday's 28°C. The market is currently incorrectly anchored to 29°C (priced at 28.5c) and 28°C (24.5c), significantly overestimating the heat. In contrast, 26°C (trading at only 7c) and 27°C (13.5c) are deeply undervalued, as these two options cover the most probable resolution range.
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Movers
On March 16, 2026, the price of '26°C' crashed from 20.5c at 1:55 PM to 5c at 10:35 PM, and '27°C' similarly fell from 29c to 15.5c. This was likely caused by a chaotic market reaction to the approaching cold front; capital may have fled to the extreme '24°C or below' (which also later crashed) or rotated back to hotter options, leaving the reasonable middle ground (26-27°C) oversold. On March 15, 2026, '24°C or below' plummeted from 25c to 8.5c as forecasts for an extreme temperature drop were revised, shifting expectations back to moderate levels.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Polymarket currently prices 29°C (~28.5% chance) and 28°C (~24.5% chance) as the most likely outcomes, totaling over 50%. However, mainstream meteorological sources (TimeAndDate, AccuWeather Global) explicitly forecast a high between 79°F-80°F (26°C-27°C). Market pricing is lagging behind the latest model revisions and remains anchored to the hotter weather of previous days.
