Retrieve the latest information and visit the Polymarket page for the 'Highest temperature in Buenos Aires' event. Given the negligible volume of $20, ignore potentially distorted last-traded prices and focus on analyzing the bid-ask spread in the Order Book for the temperature ranges most aligned with current weather forecasts (e.g., 26°C-29°C) to assess fair value and liquidity risk.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest information and visit the Polymarket page for the 'Highest temperature in Buenos Aires' event. Given the negligible volume of $20, ignore potentially distorted last-traded prices and focus on analyzing the bid-ask spread in the Order Book for the temperature ranges most aligned with current weather forecasts (e.g., 26°C-29°C) to assess fair value and liquidity risk.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for the specific weather forecast for 'Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station (SAEZ)' on March 20, 2026, using the resolution source Wunderground.com, and cross-reference it with The Weather Channel and AccuWeather. Verify if Wunderground's predicted high matches the consensus or is an outlier, as the market resolves strictly based on its data (rounded to whole degrees), creating a risk of source bias.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for the specific weather forecast for 'Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station (SAEZ)' on March 20, 2026, using the resolution source Wunderground.com, and cross-reference it with The Weather Channel and AccuWeather. Verify if Wunderground's predicted high matches the consensus or is an outlier, as the market resolves strictly based on its data (rounded to whole degrees), creating a risk of source bias.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extreme lack of liquidity (only $20 volume), apply a 'Stink Bid' strategy. Calculate and formulate a plan to place limit buy orders significantly below the theoretical fair value on the most probable temperature ranges (based on forecasts), aiming to catch potential panic sells or careless market orders over the next 4 days.

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extreme lack of liquidity (only $20 volume), apply a 'Stink Bid' strategy. Calculate and formulate a plan to place limit buy orders significantly below the theoretical fair value on the most probable temperature ranges (based on forecasts), aiming to catch potential panic sells or careless market orders over the next 4 days.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$4,709 Vol|

1 days 18 hrs

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 20? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

27°C

YesNo

8¢

92¢

35¢

65¢

+27¢

0¢

29°C

YesNo

30¢

70¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+20¢

30°C

YesNo

23¢

77¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+18¢

26°C

YesNo

4.3¢

95.7¢

20¢

80¢

+15.7¢

0¢

28°C

YesNo

14.5¢

85.5¢

25¢

75¢

+10.5¢

0¢

31°C

YesNo

13¢

87¢

3¢

97¢

0¢

+10¢

25°C

YesNo

1.7¢

98.3¢

10¢

90¢

+8.3¢

0¢

32°C

YesNo

6.5¢

93.5¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+5.5¢

34°C or higher

YesNo

2.35¢

97.65¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+2.3¢

33°C

YesNo

1.85¢

98.15¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.8¢

24°C or below

YesNo

1.1¢

98.9¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+0.1¢

AI Insights:

03.17 13:22 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on the latest forecasts from the resolution source (Wunderground/The Weather Company) and Google Weather, the high temperature for Ezeiza Airport (SAEZ) on March 20, 2026, is projected to be between 26°C and 27°C (79-80°F) with a chance of rain. AccuWeather predicts an even cooler 25°C. However, the prediction market is currently mispricing a 'hot' scenario, favoring 29°C-31°C (aggregate >50% probability), which significantly diverges from the consensus of the models used for settlement. The fair value model assigns the highest weight to 27°C and estimates an >80% probability for the 26-28°C range, rendering the market favorite of 31°C highly unlikely.

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Movers

March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, the price of the 31°C option surged from 10.5c to 23.5c before settling at 21c, while the 27°C option crashed from 20.5c to 6c. This drastic rotation appears to be a reaction to an outdated or outlier hot weather model, completely diverging from the latest resolution source (Wunderground) forecast of a cooler 27°C, indicating irrational market volatility.

Divergence

Significant divergence exists. The market consensus leans heavily towards a 'hot' outcome (29-31°C), with 29°C and 31°C as favorites. However, mainstream meteorological sources (Google Weather, AccuWeather, Wunderground) consistently forecast a 'cool/mild' outcome (25-27°C). Market pricing is likely lagging or misled by erroneous data.

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 20? - AI Odds Analysis

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