Betting on the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a highly niche weather prediction market. While weather derivatives exist in institutional finance, it remains a novelty topic that few people casually think about.

Predicting the exact numerical bucket of posts a politician makes on a specific social media platform over a single week is highly granular and mostly functions as a degenerate betting market rather than a topic of serious mainstream interest.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the 120-139 bracket surged from 34c to 75.5c, while the 140-159 bracket plunged from a peak of 68.3c down to 26.5c. This occurred because Trump's posting frequency slowed down significantly as the deadline approached, making the 120-139 range the highly probable final outcome. April 16, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the 140-159 bracket surged from 1.3c to 55c, the 100-119 bracket crashed from 66c to 0.05c, and the 120-139 bracket dropped from 71.5c to 34c. This was caused by a massive, sudden burst of posts by Trump right before the deadline, rapidly pushing the total past previous low expectations and highly likely into the 140-159 range. April 16, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the 100-119 bracket surged from 26.5c to 50.5c, while the 120-139 bracket plummeted from 67c to 46c. This was caused by a sharp slowdown in posting frequency on the final day, heavily shifting probabilities back to the lower bracket. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the 140-159 bracket plunged from 24.5c to 3.55c, while the 100-119 bracket rebounded from 5.5c to 27.5c. This was caused by a slowdown in posting pace, eliminating hopes of hitting the higher 140+ range while increasing the tail risk of falling short of 120. April 14, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the 120-139 bracket surged from 26.5c to a peak of 73.5c, while the 100-119 bracket plummeted from a high of 60c to 16.5c. This was caused by the steady accumulation of posts making it nearly certain the total would surpass 119, triggering a massive capital shift into the 120-139 bracket. April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the 140-159 bracket surged from 6.1c to a high of 24.5c before falling back to 5c. This was driven by a temporary burst in posting frequency that raised fears of hitting a higher bracket, which later cooled as the pace slowed. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the 100-119 bracket rose from 34.5c to 49.5c, while the 80-99 bracket plummeted from 26c to 9c. This was caused by Trump's posting frequency remaining consistently high over the tracked period, dramatically increasing the likelihood of finishing in the 100-119 range and sharply reducing the chance of the 80-99 outcome. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 80-99 bracket plummeted from 38.5c to 26c, as Trump's actual posting frequency further accelerated, shifting market expectations towards higher brackets. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the 80-99 bracket dropped from 39.5c to 26c, while the 120-139 bracket rose from 11c to 23.5c. This was caused by an accelerated posting frequency mid-cycle, shifting the projected total higher. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the 60-79 bracket dropped from 18.5c to 2.35c. This was caused by the continuous release of actual posting data over the first couple of days, where the pace made reaching such a low total highly unlikely. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the 140-159 bracket plunged from 12.15c to 2.2c. This was caused by the release of the first day's actual posting data, making a very high total unlikely and triggering a sell-off. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the 60-79 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 11c, the 120-139 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 15c, and the 140-159 bracket plunged from 26.5c to 4.5c. Multiple brackets initially shared an anomalously identical price due to early illiquidity, which corrected as market makers established a consensus around the 80-119 range. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the 80-99 bracket surged from 30c to 42.5c, before settling back to around 35c on the 10th. This movement reflects an initial strong consensus on this median range, which later saw some capital shift towards adjacent high-probability brackets.

Although the rules specify which posts count (main feed, quotes, and reposts), the inclusion of 'replies recorded on the main feed' and 'deleted posts alive for ~5 mins' could cause counting disputes. Furthermore, heavy reliance on a specific tracker (xtracker) introduces the risk of technical glitches causing miscounts.

Outside of heavy prediction market participants, the general public would almost never think to track or predict the exact number of social media posts a world leader makes in a specific week, making it a typical exotic quantitative market.

April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026: The price of the '80-99' option surged from 34.8c to 64.35c, while '60-79' plummeted from 63c to 40.5c. The reason is that the cumulative post count has steadily increased and is likely approaching the 80 threshold, causing a massive shift in market expectations from the 60-79 to the 80-99 bracket. April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026: The price of the '40-59' option dropped significantly from 32.5c to 11c, as the cumulative post count over time has clearly surpassed or is about to surpass the upper limit of this bracket, greatly reducing market expectations of it landing there. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The prices of the '100-119' and '80-99' options plummeted from ~37c and 42c down to single digits (~3c and 8c) respectively, as being halfway through the time period drastically reduced the mathematical probability of extreme post volumes, wiping out earlier speculative premiums. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The '60-79' option steadily climbed from 38.5c to 59.5c, as the accumulated pacing on the post tracker made this bracket the mathematical favorite. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026: The '140-159' option spiked from 1.65c to 27.2c before instantly collapsing to 0.6c, and '160-179' crashed from 22c to 0.6c, as the mathematical probability of such high counts dwindled with the passing time, wiping out early irrational speculation. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026: The '100-119' option experienced extreme volatility, spiking from 7.1c to 44.95c before dumping to 13.7c, reflecting market overreaction to a single-day burst of posts followed by rational correction. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026: The price of the '120-139' option spiked from 16.5c to 31.65c before dropping to 12.45c, likely due to a brief speculative surge on the possibility of higher frequency posting, which was quickly flattened by arbitrageurs. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026: Several high-frequency options ('180-199', '200+', '100-119') plummeted by more than 10c (e.g., '180-199' dropped from 21.6c to 1.65c). As the time window progressed, the mathematical probability of extreme post volumes collapsed, forcing a market correction. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026: The '20-39' option crashed from 24.5c to 8c, presumably because early tracking data showed a fast posting pace, effectively eliminating the likelihood of the lowest brackets.

This is a highly niche and trivial topic. The general public and mainstream media would never naturally wonder or predict the exact number of times the White House account tweets in a specific week. It is a purely manufactured betting market for high-frequency trading.

April 16, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of the 200+ option surged from 73.05c to 86.35c (then adjusted to 80.2c), as the approaching settlement further confirmed the extremely high posting run-rate. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of the 200+ option skyrocketed from 3.55c to 83.55c, as a massive burst of tweets from the White House made it highly probable that the total will exceed 200. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of the 160-179 option plummeted from 63c to 0.05c, because the tweet count rapidly surpassed this range, making it virtually impossible. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged to 58c before falling back to 22c, as the rapid pace initially made this the most likely landing spot, but continued posting pushed projections into the 200+ tier. April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option plummeted from 46.5c to 11c, as the White House's posting frequency remained high, making it extremely likely the final count will exceed this range. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 200+ option plummeted from 23.5c to 2.85c, as the accumulated data over the weekend confirmed a lower run-rate, virtually eliminating the chance of exceeding 200 posts. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option dropped from 26.5c to 11.5c, because the required posting rate to reach this higher tier became less likely as days passed. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option surged from 23c to 38.5c, as the daily posting rate stabilized, significantly increasing the probability of ending in this upper-middle range. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 200+ option plummeted from 36.5c to 4.5c, because as weekend data accumulated, the posting rate stabilized, significantly reducing the likelihood of reaching an extremely high total (200+). April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged from 12c to 26.5c (later falling to 23c), because as the 200+ probability dropped, some of those extreme expectations shifted to this second-highest range. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option plummeted from 43c to 28c, because the actual rate leaned slightly towards higher ranges (160-179), further compressing the probability of this upper-middle range. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option plummeted from 28c to 5.5c, as the high posting frequency caused a sharp drop in the probability of landing in this relatively lower tier. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option plummeted from 25.5c to 1.45c, because the high frequency of tweets from the White House makes it highly likely that the total will exceed this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option plummeted from 25.5c to 6.5c, also due to the high tweet frequency causing a sharp drop in the probability of this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 20-39 option plummeted from 18.5c to 0.05c, because the total number of tweets has already far exceeded this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 60-79 option plummeted from 18.5c to 0.2c, because the total number of tweets has already exceeded this range.