The title explicitly mentions 'Seoul', but the resolution rules specify using data from the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station' (RKSI). Temperatures can vary significantly between downtown Seoul and the airport, creating a classic trap for traders relying solely on general Seoul weather forecasts.

2026-04-23 17:53:18-2026-04-23 22:13:18, the price of '9°C' surged from 34c to 94.5c, while the price of '8°C' plummeted from 30.5c to 5.5c. The reason is that as local time in South Korea advanced into the early morning of April 24, the actual minimum temperature recorded at the weather station stabilized at 49°F (9.4°C, which resolves to 9°C), prompting the market to rapidly lock in this outcome.

April 22, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of the 52-53°F option plummeted from 48c to 9.5c before rebounding to 38.5c due to major revisions in meteorological models during this period. April 22, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the 54-55°F option dropped sharply from 47.5c to 9.5c and recovered to 30c, driven by short-term uncertainties in the timing of a cold front passage. April 22, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the 46-47°F option fell from 38.5c to 6.1c and surged back to 26.8c due to adjustments in forecasted nocturnal radiational cooling effects.

The rules explicitly exclude most standard replies but include 'main feed replies' and deleted posts captured by the tracker. Resolution strongly relies on a specific Polymarket custom tracker rather than raw X platform public counts. If the tracker experiences API delays or downtime, the final count might deviate from perceived real-world totals.

Predicting the exact bracket of tweet counts a specific celebrity will post in a given week is a highly niche and exotic entertainment market. Outside of hardcore prediction market traders or obsessive fans, the general public rarely thinks about this.

The rules exclude standard replies but may include them if recorded on the main feed by the tracker. Deleted posts count only if they survive for ~5 minutes. The market relies heavily on a specific Polymarket tracker for resolution, which may cause discrepancies with manual counting, posing a moderate risk.

Betting on the exact number of tweets posted by the official White House account in a specific week is a highly niche and trivial statistic. Ordinary people would rarely consider or care about this outside of prediction market enthusiasts.

April 21, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option plummeted from 40.5c to 7.5c, and the 120-139 option dropped from 38.5c to 13c. The reason is that as the week's schedule progressed, the White House account's posting frequency stabilized, allowing the market to confidently narrow its expectations to the 140-179 range, selling off the tail probabilities on both sides. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of the 200+ option plummeted from 33.5c to 20c, as expectations for extremely high-frequency posting cooled down, with capital flowing back into the 140-199 high-frequency ranges. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option crashed from 31c to 8.25c, accompanied by a noticeable drop in the 120-139 option. This was driven by a significant recent increase in the White House account's activity, causing the market to sharply upward-revise the expected total post count and sell off shares in the lower-frequency brackets.