Although weather hedging is a mature professional financial derivative, placing bets on the exact high temperature of a specific city on a single day remains a relatively niche and novelty topic in retail prediction markets, which ordinary participants rarely think about.

April 25, 2026 02:28 - April 25, 2026 10:03, the price of the 35°C option surged from 24.5c to 99.9c, as the actual temperature in Jakarta gradually climbed and the daily high was eventually confirmed at 35°C in the afternoon local time. April 25, 2026 02:28 - April 25, 2026 10:03, the price of the 36°C option initially spiked from 4.5c to 30.3c before plummeting to 0.05c, because the temperature approached 36°C, triggering market speculation, but ultimately failed to reach it.

While weather prediction markets are not entirely uncommon, forecasting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city remains a relatively niche and novelty-driven topic for anyone outside of meteorology enthusiasts or locals.

April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026: The Yes price for the '36°C' option surged from around 4c to nearly 100c. This was driven by the availability of actual intraday temperature observations on April 25, confirming the maximum temperature recorded at the Kuala Lumpur Intl Airport Station reached exactly 36°C, causing the market to rapidly converge to a 100% certainty. Over the last 3 days, as the resolution date approached, weather forecast uncertainty diminished significantly. The previously expected 32-34°C range did not materialize, and actual temperatures were higher than expected, leading to a sudden spike in the 36°C option.

Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific Central American city on a given day is a relatively niche market. While weather prediction markets exist as a category, very few people naturally think about this specific question.

Between April 23, 2026, and April 24, 2026, the price of '31°C or higher' experienced significant volatility, dropping from 88.5c to 67.5c before rebounding to 94.65c. This was likely due to minor adjustments in short-term weather forecasts or profit-taking by traders. However, as the settlement date approached and high temperatures were confirmed, the price quickly returned to elevated levels. Between April 23, 2026, and April 24, 2026, the price of '30°C' rose from 8.5c to a peak of 16.5c, then fell back to 6.9c. This occurred as capital briefly shifted to the lower temperature option when the probability of '31°C or higher' dipped, but it subsequently declined as the high temperature was confirmed.

While weather betting is an existing niche, predicting the exact high temperature in a specific Nordic city on a random future day is highly specific. The general public would almost never think about this specific outcome before seeing the market.

April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of 9°C surged from 15c to 78.5c, and 10°C rose from roughly 2.6c to 21.3c, while the prices for 7°C and 8°C collapsed from near 30c to below 0.1c. The reason is that actual meteorological observations on April 25 confirmed the temperature had already reached 9°C (48°F), immediately ruling out the lower temperature options.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is relatively niche. While checking weather forecasts is an everyday routine, trading it as a financialized prediction market instrument carries a distinct novelty and exotic attribute.

From April 23, 2026, to April 25, 2026, the price of 16°C dropped from 18.5c to 12c, having spiked to 27.5c in between, indicating forecast volatility but ultimately leaning towards temperatures below 16°C. From April 23, 2026, to April 25, 2026, the price of 15°C rose from 37.5c to 49c, becoming the favorite as temperature data became clearer closer to settlement. From April 23, 2026, to April 25, 2026, the price of 13°C dropped from 10c to 1.25c, as the market largely ruled out this lower temperature possibility.