Predicting the exact highest temperature down to the degree for a specific city on a specific date is a somewhat niche market. While daily weather forecasts are common, the general public rarely bets on such precise meteorological data.

May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the price of the 28°C option surged from 23c to a peak of 43.5c, while the 30°C option plummeted from a high of 24.7c to 3c. The reason is that as the target date approaches, weather forecasting models have become much more precise, adjusting the expected high temperature down to converge around 28°C, largely ruling out the chance of hitting 30°C.

May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the price of the 12°C option surged from 7c to 31c, and the 13°C option climbed from 21.5c to 41c, while the 14°C option dropped from 32.5c to 18.5c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, the latest meteorological models have slightly lowered the expected high for May 9 to 54-55°F (approx. 12-13°C), heavily increasing the certainty for these buckets and suppressing the odds for 14°C and above.

Predicting the daily temperature of a specific city is a relatively niche market. While weather derivatives exist in traditional finance, the general public rarely bets on or thinks about such granular daily temperature questions, giving it a moderate novelty factor.

On May 9, 2026, the price of the 31°C option surged from 31.5c to 87.5c, while 32°C plunged from 49c to 8.5c, and 33°C dropped from 13c to 1.3c. The reason is that as Singapore local time entered the afternoon, the day's maximum temperature was largely locked in at 31°C, eliminating the possibility of higher temperatures. On May 8, 2026, the price of the 31°C option rose from 31c to 40.5c, while 32°C dropped from 46.5c to 33.5c, and 33°C dropped from 19c to 7c. This was driven by the latest weather forecasts solidifying expectations around a peak of 31°C and reducing the likelihood of higher temperatures. On May 7, 2026, the price of the 33°C option briefly surged from 18c to 35c before falling back, reflecting earlier uncertainty about potential extreme heat.

May 8, 2026 - May 9, 2026, the price for 23°C skyrocketed from 4c to 40c, 24°C rose from 21c to 32c, and '22°C or below' surged from 0.4c to 13.9c, while 25°C, 26°C, and higher options experienced a sharp crash (e.g., 26°C dropped from 34.5c to 2c). The reason is that actual weather conditions (cloudy/overcast) on the settlement day resulted in midday temperatures being significantly lower than earlier model predictions (which anticipated around 26°C). The market drastically adjusted its high-temperature estimates based on real-time temperature observations. May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, multiple options experienced significant volatility. The price of 25°C climbed from 19c to 30c; 27°C dropped from 28c to 13c before rebounding to 23c; 24°C rose steadily from 7c to 17c; 23°C also briefly spiked from 1c to 15c before retracting. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, differing meteorological model updates caused frequent market adjustments regarding the exact temperature, specifically within the 24°C-27°C range.