April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of '72°F or higher' plummeted from 50.5c to 9.5c, as updated meteorological models regarding the timing of the cold front indicated significant cooling before midnight, making temperatures above 72°F highly unlikely. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the prices for '62-63°F' and '66-67°F' saw notable increases (jumping by over 10c), as the forecasted speed of the cold front became clearer, shifting the consensus for the midnight high to the mid-60s. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of '53°F or below' dropped from 14c to 1c, as the market fully absorbed the logic that the daily high will occur at midnight due to residual heat, effectively pricing out the daytime high forecasts.

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream weather apps (like AccuWeather and WeatherBug) show a daily high of around 52°F for April 18 in their summaries, representing the 'daytime high.' However, the prediction market resolves based on the absolute highest temperature recorded during the 24-hour calendar day. Because temperatures will be dropping from the 80s overnight on April 17, the temperature at exactly 12:00 AM on April 18 will be much higher than 52°F. This creates a stark superficial divergence between the market's mid-60s pricing and the daily forecast summaries presented to the public.