April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of '16°C' steadily climbed from 26c to 43.5c, while '18°C' plummeted from a high of 32c to 11.5c, and '15°C' retreated from 25c to 12.5c. This occurred because, as the resolution date approached, weather forecasting models converged, confirming that the high temperature at Shanghai Pudong Airport would likely land in the 16°C-17°C range, prompting the market to dump outlier options and consolidate around 16°C.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of the 12°C option surged from 11c to roughly 27c, and the 11°C option jumped from 13c to 25c, while the 8°C option plummeted from 23.5c down to around 3c. This was caused by a major update in short-term weather forecasting models, projecting a warm front for Toronto on April 21 and significantly raising the expected high temperature.

The title mentions 'Denver,' but the rules strictly specify using data from the Buckley Space Force Base (KBKF) in Aurora. Temperature variations between Denver proper (or its main airport) and this specific base could mislead traders who only read the title.

Predicting the highest temperature of a specific city on a single day is a typical novelty/fringe market topic. Aside from local residents and weather data traders, the general public does not think about such granular questions.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the Yes price for 21°C surged from 11.5c to 33.5c, and the Yes price for 19°C rose from 16c to 35c before settling back to 27c. This was likely driven by short-term weather forecasting models updating their expected peak temperatures as the resolution date approaches.