From April 21 to April 22, 2026, the price of 22°C surged from 33.5c to 53.5c, while the price of 20°C plummeted from 23c to 4.5c. The price of 21°C also retreated from 37c to 23.5c, and 23°C fell from 30c to 11.5c. The reason is that as the expiration date approaches, the latest short-term weather forecasts have clarified the temperature trend, eliminating the lower (20°C) and higher (23°C) extremes, causing expectations to strongly consolidate around 22°C.

Weather betting is a standard niche in prediction markets, but predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a given date is relatively obscure and trivial, falling outside the daily considerations of the general public.

April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of 22°C plummeted from 16c to under 1c, and 23°C dropped from 25c to 12c, as approaching weather forecasts indicated temperatures would be higher than 23°C. April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of 24°C steadily climbed from 30.5c to 43c, because updated forecasts zeroed in on 24°C as the expected high.

This is a standard weather prediction market. While common on forecasting platforms, the general public rarely speculates on the exact high temperature of a specific city on a given date, making it somewhat niche.

Between April 21, 2026 and April 22, 2026, the price of the 27°C option surged from 20c to 36.5c, while the 29°C option plummeted from 31c to 14c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, the latest high-resolution meteorological models indicated slightly stronger cloud cover or a cooler air mass than previously expected. This downgraded the peak temperature forecast by 1-2°C, shifting market confidence away from 29°C toward the milder 27°C and 28°C ranges.

While daily weather forecasting is a normal part of life, betting on the exact high temperature of a specific city on a given day is a somewhat niche, novelty-leaning market for the general public.

From April 21, 2026 to April 22, 2026, the price of 18°C surged from 25.5c to 46.5c, as the latest meteorological model data revised the expected high temperature up to 18°C approaching the settlement date. From April 21, 2026 to April 22, 2026, the price of 17°C rose from 16.5c to a peak of 39.5c before settling at 33c, as the estimated temperature range narrowed to the 17-18°C bracket. From April 21, 2026 to April 22, 2026, the price of 19°C plummeted from 23.5c to 9.5c, because weather forecasts effectively ruled out the possibility of reaching 19°C.

April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of the 19°C option surged from around 32.5c to 85.5c, while the 20°C option plummeted from 35.5c to 7.5c. This sharp movement occurred because as Tokyo entered April 23 (JST), the actual early morning observed temperature hit 19°C (66°F). With the daytime forecast predicting rain and a high of only 18°C, the highest temperature for the 24-hour period is highly likely locked at the early morning 19°C mark, making it the dominant favorite and slashing the odds of reaching 20°C.