All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
66-67°F
YesNo
64-65°F
YesNo
59°F or below
YesNo
70-71°F
YesNo
60-61°F
YesNo
62-63°F
YesNo
68-69°F
YesNo
76-77°F
YesNo
74-75°F
YesNo
78°F or higher
YesNo
72-73°F
YesNo
AI Insights:
5 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Recent weather forecasts (including AccuWeather and Weather.com, the parent company of the resolution source) have reached a strong consensus on a significant warm-up for Chicago on Friday. AccuWeather currently predicts a high of 61°F, while Weather.com (sharing data sources with Wunderground) is more aggressive, showing highs of 67-68°F. Consequently, the market's previous bet on '59°F or below' has completely collapsed. Given the resolution source bias, fair value is weighted towards the mid-to-high 60s (64-69°F), with '66-67°F' and '68-69°F' aligning best with current Wunderground guidance. '60-61°F' remains plausible if warm air advection is weaker than expected, but higher buckets offer better value relative to the specific resolution source.
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Movers
March 18, 2026 (Morning, Latest), the price of '59°F or below' crashed from ~38c to 6.5c, while prices for all options above 60°F rallied. The driver was the convergence of all major meteorological models and forecast sources (such as Wunderground and AccuWeather) on a warm surge for Friday as the 48-hour window approached, upgrading high temp forecasts into the 60s or near 70°F, effectively negating the early cold front hypothesis.
March 17, 2026 (Evening), '59°F or below' dropped from 54c to 38c, reflecting initial overnight model revisions favoring a warmer Friday.
