All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
64-65°F
YesNo
59°F or below
YesNo
70-71°F
YesNo
68-69°F
YesNo
74-75°F
YesNo
60-61°F
YesNo
76-77°F
YesNo
78°F or higher
YesNo
66-67°F
YesNo
62-63°F
YesNo
72-73°F
YesNo
AI Insights:
7 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the latest meteorological models (AccuWeather forecasts 71°F, WeatherBug 69°F, and Wunderground source data implying high 60s to 70s), Chicago is expecting a significant warmup on March 21. The market is currently pricing conservatively, clustering around 64-67°F, failing to fully reflect that major forecast sources (specifically the resolution source, Wunderground/The Weather Company model) are leaning towards 68-71°F. Previous expectations of a cold front have diminished significantly, causing the probability of '59°F or below' to collapse. Thus, fair value weight is shifted higher to the 68-73°F range.
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Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of '59°F or below' crashed from 25.5c to 4.5c, because weather forecasts underwent a fundamental shift; latest models delayed the arrival of a cold front and confirmed significant warm advection for Saturday (21st), dismantling the low-temperature thesis.
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of '70-71°F' spiked from 17c to 25c (before settling at 17.5c), because capital rapidly reallocated to higher temperature buckets following the collapse of the '59°F or below' option, reflecting a reassessment of the potential for highs exceeding 70°F.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. While the market has reacted to the 'warmup', it lags behind the aggressive forecasts from the resolution source (Wunderground/IBM model) and AccuWeather (71°F). The market currently prices 64-65°F (18.5c) as the favorite, which is ~5 degrees cooler than the leading meteorological guidance (69-71°F), indicating the market is still excessively hedging against the outdated cold forecast.
