May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the 70-80m option continued to rise from 83.3c and stabilized at an extreme high of 96.75c. This occurred because Sunday's final box office trajectory aligned exactly with expectations, completely eliminating the remaining suspense of breaking $80M or dropping below $70M, leading capital to view this range as an almost guaranteed winner.
May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the 70-80m option continued to surge from 66.05c to 94.15c, as the actual Friday and Saturday box office trends highly aligned with expectations, completely eliminating the suspense of breaking above $80M or dropping below $70M, causing market capital to aggressively consolidate into this certain range.
May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the 70-80m option surged from 67.7c to 88.95c, while the 80-90m option fell from 24.3c to around 6c. This was due to preliminary Friday box office estimates cementing the weekend trend, further eliminating the possibility of a weekend surge past $80M, locking the market almost entirely into the 70-80m range.
April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the 70-80m option spiked further to 78.45c before settling at 65.65c and stabilizing around 72c. Meanwhile, the 80-90m option plunged from 39.5c to 3.5c before rebounding near 24c. The <70m option was highly volatile, briefly surging to 37.4c before dropping near 8c. This was due to actual Thursday preview and early opening day numbers landing squarely in the $70M-$80M range, causing the market to rapidly discard higher expectations. However, later data updates eased fears of dropping below 70m while maintaining a slight hope of breaking 80m.
April 30, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the 70-80m option spiked from 16.95c to 51.95c, while the 80-90m option plunged from 60.5c to 26.5c, and the <70m option jumped from 1.65c to 13.65c. This was due to Thursday preview or early performance data coming in lower than expected, prompting rapid downward revisions for the opening weekend box office.
April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the 80-90m option decreased from 64.5c to 48c, while the 70-80m option increased from 17.9c to 28c. This was because the final pre-release tracking data was slightly downgraded, causing some capital to revise expectations downward into the 70-80m bracket.
April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the 80-90m option rebounded from 24c to 53c, while the 90-100m option pulled back from 53c to 30c. This was because late-stage presale data closer to release made the market less confident in breaking $90M, prompting capital to rebalance the probabilities between 80-90m and 90-100m.
April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the 90-100m option rebounded sharply from 26c to 53c before settling at 45.5c, while the 80-90m option dropped from 48.5c to 34c, and the 70-80m option spiked to 24.65c before plummeting to 10.5c. This was driven by a late-stage presale surge and increased theater allocations, renewing market confidence in a $90M+ opening.
April 24, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the >100m option plummeted from 42.5c to 7.5c, while the 80-90m option surged from 22.5c to 43c. As the release date neared, more accurate theater allocation and presale conversion data indicated that breaking the $100M mark would be difficult, prompting a rapid return to a rational $80M-$90M baseline.
April 22, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of the 70-80m option plummeted from 23c to 4.85c, while the >100m option surged from 10.5c to 42.5c, driven by extremely strong early presales.
