2026-04-23 22:38:18 - 2026-04-24 10:33:17, the price of 21°C surged from 28.5c to 99.95c, because as daytime ended in Taipei on April 24, the actual high temperature was recorded and locked at 21°C, eliminating all uncertainty. 2026-04-23 22:38:18 - 2026-04-24 10:33:17, the price of 22°C plummeted from 41.5c to 0.05c, because the temperature failed to reach 22°C and the possibility became null as time passed. 2026-04-22 07:38:24 - 2026-04-23 18:18:18, the price of 21°C fluctuated and rose from 17c to 32c as weather forecasts increasingly favored 21°C as the high temperature. 2026-04-23 03:08:17 - 2026-04-23 05:18:19, the price of 20°C rose from 13.5c to 15.5c before falling back, due to minor adjustments in short-term weather models predicting cooler temperatures.

Weather predictions are a regular but niche category in prediction markets. Betting on the exact high temperature of a specific city on a specific day is not bizarre, but generally doesn't attract attention outside of locals or specialized meteorological traders.

April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of the 27°C option surged from 37.5c to 64.5c, as real-time weather data on the resolution day made this temperature range the most probable outcome for the daily high. April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of the 26°C option plummeted from 28.5c to 0.05c, because the actual temperature during the day exceeded 26°C, effectively eliminating this option.

April 24, 2026 02:58 - April 24, 2026 07:18, the price of 30°C surged from 22.45c to 80.65c, while 28°C and 29°C plummeted to near zero. The reason is that local time in Chengdu progressed into the afternoon, and live recorded temperatures hit 30°C, essentially ending the suspense. April 23, 2026 - early April 24, 2026, 28°C and 29°C were fluctuating in the 30c-40c range as favorites, but were quickly dumped by the market once actual observations showed hotter temperatures.

April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026: The price of the 22°C option surged from 43c to 89c, while the 21°C option plummeted from 31.5c to 0c, and the 23°C option dropped from 18c to 8c. This is because as actual daytime temperature data for April 24 emerged, the likelihood of the highest temperature locking in at 22°C significantly increased, leading the market to reprice accordingly.

April 24, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of 24°C skyrocketed from 10.5c to 93c because actual observed temperatures on that day fell short of earlier forecasts, effectively locking in 24°C as the high. April 24, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of 26°C plummeted from 51c to less than 1c as it became clear the temperature would not reach this level. April 24, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of 25°C collapsed from 44.5c to 6.5c for the same reason, as live data contradicted this outcome.