This is a typical weather prediction market. While checking the weather is a daily routine for most, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city down to the degree is a relatively niche and novel segment in prediction markets.

On April 24, 2026, the price of the 5°C option fell from 32.5c to 21c, and the 7°C option dropped from 19c to 8.5c. This is due to weather forecast models converging and providing more certainty that the peak temperature will be around 6°C, thereby reducing the uncertainty for slightly higher or lower temperatures.

Predicting the highest temperature in a specific city on a single day is a relatively niche market. While grounded in empirical data, the general public rarely tracks this, making it mostly appealing to weather enthusiasts or algorithmic traders.

While betting on exact temperature ranges for a specific city is a common niche in prediction markets, the general public rarely thinks about predicting temperatures narrowed down to a 2-degree range unless extreme weather is involved.

Predicting the daily high temperature of a specific city is a somewhat niche but common routine topic in prediction markets. It is not extremely bizarre, though it is certainly not a macro event of broad public interest.