All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
90-91°F
YesNo
84-85°F
YesNo
86-87°F
YesNo
92°F or higher
YesNo
82-83°F
YesNo
80-81°F
YesNo
78-79°F
YesNo
76-77°F
YesNo
88-89°F
YesNo
74-75°F
YesNo
73°F or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
1 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the latest meteorological data, the core market range is locked between 86-91°F. Google/Weather.com forecasts a high of 86°F, AccuWeather predicts 88°F, while the NWS (National Weather Service) explicitly states in its latest discussion that Thursday is a transition to extreme heat, with 'low 90s in some areas,' accompanied by fire weather warnings (dry ground promotes faster heating). Given that Love Field is an urban station (heat island effect), actual temperatures often exceed the regional average, making 88-89°F the most probable outcome (Fair Value ~36c), followed by 86-87°F (~30c). The current market pricing for 90-91°F (12.5c) is too low, failing to fully account for the '90s' upside risk mentioned by NWS and the heating potential of dry soil. Conversely, with the warm ridge established, the probability of temperatures below 85°F is now negligible.
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Exotics
This is a specific meteorological prediction market. While weather forecasting is common, betting on the precise maximum temperature range for a specific date and city is a relatively niche and granular category, less mainstream than sports or elections.
Movers
On March 18, 2026, the price of '84-85°F' plummeted from 26.5c to 11.5c as the forecast window entered the final 24 hours and major models/commercial forecasts (Weather.com/AccuWeather) consolidated the high temperature consensus to 86-88°F, causing the market to rapidly abandon cooler scenarios below 85°F.
On March 16, 2026, the price of '82-83°F' dropped from 20c to 9.5c, as the confirmation of an unseasonal warm ridge ruled out mild weather, shifting the market focus heavily toward the higher temperature end.
