Retrieve the latest order book and user discussions for the "Highest temperature in Dallas on March 21" event on Polymarket. Given the extremely low volume (5.0505), combine this with real-time Wunderground forecast data for the Dallas Love Field Station (KDAL) to update the fair value assessment for each temperature range (e.g., "79°F or below" vs. "80-81°F") and analyze the specific risks associated with the lack of liquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest order book and user discussions for the "Highest temperature in Dallas on March 21" event on Polymarket. Given the extremely low volume (5.0505), combine this with real-time Wunderground forecast data for the Dallas Love Field Station (KDAL) to update the fair value assessment for each temperature range (e.g., "79°F or below" vs. "80-81°F") and analyze the specific risks associated with the lack of liquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for the latest daily weather forecasts from Wunderground and the National Weather Service (NWS) specifically for Dallas Love Field Station (KDAL). Compare the predicted high temperatures for March 21 to confirm which option range (e.g., 82-83°F) aligns best with the consensus of mainstream weather models and verify the accuracy of current market pricing.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for the latest daily weather forecasts from Wunderground and the National Weather Service (NWS) specifically for Dallas Love Field Station (KDAL). Compare the predicted high temperatures for March 21 to confirm which option range (e.g., 82-83°F) aligns best with the consensus of mainstream weather models and verify the accuracy of current market pricing.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the current bid-ask spread and the fair win rate derived from Wunderground forecasts, suggest an optimal Limit Order price for this extremely illiquid market. The goal is to avoid the massive slippage of market orders while ensuring a reasonable chance of execution before the March 21 resolution.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the current bid-ask spread and the fair win rate derived from Wunderground forecasts, suggest an optimal Limit Order price for this extremely illiquid market. The goal is to avoid the massive slippage of market orders while ensuring a reasonable chance of execution before the March 21 resolution.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$4,627 Vol|

2 days 13 hrs

Highest temperature in Dallas on March 21? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

94-95°F

YesNo

24¢

76¢

42¢

58¢

+18¢

0¢

92-93°F

YesNo

20.5¢

79.5¢

38¢

62¢

+17.5¢

0¢

98°F or higher

YesNo

17¢

83¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+16¢

90-91°F

YesNo

14.5¢

85.5¢

6¢

94¢

0¢

+8.5¢

96-97°F

YesNo

19¢

81¢

12¢

88¢

0¢

+7¢

86-87°F

YesNo

2.9¢

97.1¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+2.9¢

88-89°F

YesNo

3.75¢

96.25¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+2.7¢

84-85°F

YesNo

1.75¢

98.25¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.7¢

82-83°F

YesNo

0.9¢

99.1¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.9¢

80-81°F

YesNo

0.3¢

99.7¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.3¢

79°F or below

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.2¢

AI Insights:

10 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on the latest meteorological models (NOAA/NWS, AccuWeather, NBC5, WFAA) as of March 18, 2026, the forecast for Dallas on March 21 has tightened significantly to the 92°F to 95°F range. While the NWS official point forecast is 93°F, the urban heat island effect at Love Field (KDAL) often adds 1-2°F, and local outlets (e.g., WFAA) are forecasting 95°F. Thus, the 94-95°F bucket represents the highest probability outcome, followed closely by 92-93°F. The market is currently severely overpricing the probability of extreme heat (98°F+) and cooler outcomes (<90°F), which should have fair values near zero.

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Movers

March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026: The price of 88-89°F crashed from 22.5c to 7.5c. This was driven by a consensus among major meteorological models (NWS, Google Weather) confirming temperatures above 90°F for Saturday, effectively eliminating the 'cooler' scenarios. Prior to March 17, 2026, prices were stagnant due to a lack of liquidity.

Divergence

There is a significant 'tail risk' divergence. While the market correctly identifies 94-95°F as the favorite (aligning with mainstream media forecasts like NBC5/WFAA at 94-95°F), it simultaneously assigns a combined probability of ~36% to outcomes above 96°F (18c for 96-97°F and 18.5c for 98°F+). This contradicts meteorological data, as no major forecast supports temperatures exceeding 96°F, suggesting the market is inefficiently hedging against extreme outliers.

Highest temperature in Dallas on March 21? - AI Odds Analysis

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