The rules explicitly exclude most standard replies but include 'main feed replies' and deleted posts captured by the tracker. Resolution strongly relies on a specific Polymarket custom tracker rather than raw X platform public counts. If the tracker experiences API delays or downtime, the final count might deviate from perceived real-world totals.

Predicting the exact bracket of tweet counts a specific celebrity will post in a given week is a highly niche and exotic entertainment market. Outside of hardcore prediction market traders or obsessive fans, the general public rarely thinks about this.

April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the 200-219 bracket surged from 5.5c to an intraday high of 15.5c (a 10c move) before settling around 11c. This was driven by traders rapidly raising expectations for lower-mid frequency outcomes based on a slightly slower initial tweeting pace, which corrected as the run-rate stabilized. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the 180-199 bracket briefly spiked from 1.75c to 3.75c, reflecting early, short-lived bets on an extremely low-frequency outcome before being corrected by the broader market.

The title explicitly mentions 'Seoul', but the resolution rules specify using data from the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station' (RKSI). Temperatures can vary significantly between downtown Seoul and the airport, creating a classic trap for traders relying solely on general Seoul weather forecasts.

The rules exclude standard replies but may include them if recorded on the main feed by the tracker. Deleted posts count only if they survive for ~5 minutes. The market relies heavily on a specific Polymarket tracker for resolution, which may cause discrepancies with manual counting, posing a moderate risk.

Betting on the exact number of tweets posted by the official White House account in a specific week is a highly niche and trivial statistic. Ordinary people would rarely consider or care about this outside of prediction market enthusiasts.

April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026: The price of the 200+ option plummeted from 33.5c to 20c, as expectations for extremely high-frequency posting cooled down, with capital flowing back into the 140-199 high-frequency ranges. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026: The price of the 100-119 option crashed from 31c to 8.25c, accompanied by a noticeable drop in the 120-139 option. This was driven by a significant recent increase in the White House account's activity, causing the market to sharply upward-revise the expected total post count and sell off shares in the lower-frequency brackets.

Relies on a proprietary Polymarket tracker, introducing potential technical blind spots. The rules state replies generally do not count, but will be counted if recorded on the main feed by the tracker. Furthermore, whether rapidly deleted posts (within ~5 minutes) are successfully captured depends heavily on system timing, easily triggering resolution disputes.

Predicting the exact tweet count of a specific politician in a random week is a typical long-tail novelty market born from the attention economy. Beyond hardcore prediction market participants, the general public would never actively track such fragmented and trivial data.

From 2026-04-21 16:03 to 2026-04-21 17:08, the price of the 120-139 bracket surged from 25.25c to 44.35c, the 140-159 bracket surged from 23.8c to 39.35c, the 160-179 bracket surged from 3.7c to 18.45c, the 180-199 bracket surged from 1.35c to 17.45c, the 20-39 bracket surged from 1.05c to 10.05c, and the 60-79 bracket surged from 26.5c to 40.5c. This was caused by Ted Cruz demonstrating an exceptionally high posting frequency on the first day of the tracking period, leading the market to comprehensively upgrade expectations for the total post count. No significant price movements exceeding 10 cents were observed in the past 3 days.

Predicting the exact number of social media posts by a politician in a random week is a classic novelty derivative market. While Trump's prolific posting is well-known, ordinary people rarely quantify or forecast the specific count for a given week.

April 18, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of the high-frequency option '200+' surged from 1.75c to 18.35c, while mid-to-low frequency options like '120-139' and '100-119' plummeted from 29.5c and 27c down to 15.5c and 9.5c, respectively. The reason is a recent spike in Trump's social media activity, prompting the market to significantly raise expectations for his 7-day posting total.