Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 21?
Weather|$10.8k Vol|
time15 hrs 15 mins

Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 21? - AI Found +16.9¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 3 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+16.9¢
32°C(No)
+15.5¢
30°C(Yes)
+5¢
29°C(No)

Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 21? AI analysis: • +16.9¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest market price trends, the Yes prices for 30°C and 31°C have risen significant...
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Highest temperature in Chicago on April 21?
Weather|$115.4k Vol|
time15 hrs 15 mins

Highest temperature in Chicago on April 21?

Top Undervalued
+0.8¢
54°F or higher(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at Chicago O'Hare International Airp...
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Exotics
Moderate novelty. While weather forecasts are extremely common in daily life, betting on the exact high-temperature range (within a few degrees) for a specific city on a single day is primarily active only in niche prediction markets. It is not a mainstream trading topic for the general public or traditional investors.
Movers
April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of '54°F or higher' surged from 84.5c to 99.7c. As the settlement date approached, the certainty of the weather forecast increased significantly, and the market quickly priced in the expectation that the temperature will be well above 54°F. The price has since stabilized above 99c. Previously, no significant price movement over 10c was observed. Recent weather forecasts consistently predicted warm temperatures, keeping the highest temperature option stable at a high price.
AI Analysis
How can I verify the data update time for Wunderground (KORD station) to avoid capital lock-up risks due to delayed finalization?
Highest temperature in London on April 21?
Weather|$40.0k Vol|
time15 hrs 15 mins

Highest temperature in London on April 21?

Top Undervalued
+11.5¢
13°C(Yes)
+6.5¢
15°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at London City Airport on April 21 i...
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Movers
April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of the 14°C option rose from 30c to a peak of 50.5c (currently at 47c). This occurred because, as the resolution date approaches, the latest weather forecasts consistently point to a high of 14°C, significantly boosting market confidence in this specific temperature range.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria and win/loss conditions for the London highest temperature market on April 21 using the simplest language (ELI5).
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 21?
Weather|$21.3k Vol|
time15 hrs 15 mins

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 21?

Top Undervalued
+23.5¢
23°C or higher(Yes)
+22.5¢
21°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The latest weather forecasts indicate that the maximum temperature at Ministro Pistarini Intl Airpor...
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Rule Risk
The title broadly states 'Buenos Aires', but the resolution strictly relies on the 'Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station (SAEZ)'. The airport is outside the urban heat island, meaning temperatures can differ significantly from the city center. Additionally, relying on Wunderground's whole-degree Celsius data could pose minor rounding risks.
Movers
From 2026-04-19 17:38:18 to 2026-04-19 19:48:18, the price of '23°C or higher' surged from 32.5c to 51.5c, likely due to updated weather models predicting higher maximum temperatures for that day. From 2026-04-19 19:48:18 to 2026-04-19 21:58:18, the price of '23°C or higher' dropped back from 51.5c to 37.5c as the market adjusted its expectations, recognizing that 22°C or 21°C still hold significant probability.
AI Analysis
How reliable is the Wunderground historical data for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport (SAEZ), and is there any risk of update delays or missing data when finalizing the highest temperature for April 21?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 21?
Weather|$15.5k Vol|
time15 hrs 15 mins

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 21?

Top Undervalued
+11¢
28°C(No)
+10.5¢
25°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest forecasts from Wunderground and other meteorological sources, the high temperatu...
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Rule Risk
The title refers broadly to Sao Paulo, but the rules strictly limit resolution to a specific station at Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) using Wunderground's whole-degree Celsius data. Furthermore, the stated settlement time (12:00 on April 21) physically contradicts the rule requiring all daily data to be finalized, meaning actual settlement will inevitably be delayed to the following day.
Exotics
Predicting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a standard daily weather market on prediction platforms. However, it remains a novel and niche concept for the general public, who rarely consider or bet on such hyper-specific meteorological data points.
Movers
April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of the 26°C option gradually climbed from 23.5c to 38.5c, an increase of 15c, because as the target date approached, weather models narrowed their forecast ranges, confirming that the high temperature will likely be around 26°C. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of the 24°C option plummeted from 10.5c to 4.15c, as updated forecasts ruled out the possibility of unseasonably low temperatures.
AI Analysis
How does Wunderground define 'finalized data' for the Guarulhos Airport (SBGR) station, and how will the market resolution be affected if the data source experiences downtime or delays on April 21?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 21?
Weather|$153.3k Vol|
time15 hrs 15 mins

Highest temperature in Seoul on April 21?

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
18°C or higher(No)
+8¢
17°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest forecasts from the Korean Meteorological Administration and other weather pl...
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Rule Risk
The title asks for Seoul's highest temperature, but the rules explicitly state that resolution is based on the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI)'. Temperatures at Incheon Airport (coastal) often differ from central Seoul, creating a trap for traders relying on generic Seoul forecasts. Additionally, temperatures are evaluated in whole degrees Celsius without accounting for later revisions.
Movers
From 2026-04-19 11:08 to 2026-04-20 08:48, the price of the 18°C or higher option plummeted further from 22.5c to 12c, as weather forecasting models confirmed that the maximum temperature would fall into a lower range (around 15°C) as the target date approached. From 2026-04-19 04:38 to 2026-04-19 07:53, the price of the 18°C or higher option dropped from 32c to 27.5c, and the 16°C option rose from 17c to 27c. This was due to updated short-term weather forecasts ruling out the possibility of anomalous high temperatures, narrowing the expected range to around 15-16°C.
AI Analysis
How reliable is the Wunderground data for the Incheon Intl Airport (RKSI) station, and how exactly will temperatures be rounded to whole degrees Celsius for the April 21 resolution?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
32°C
YesNo
29.95¢
70.05¢
13¢
87¢
0¢
+16.9¢
30°C
YesNo
26.5¢
73.5¢
42¢
58¢
+15.5¢
0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
From April 19, 2026 to April 20, 2026, the price of the 30°C option surged from 15.5c to 41.5c due to updated weather forecasts indicating a higher likelihood of increased temperatures. From April 19, 2026 to April 20, 2026, the price of the 29°C option plummeted from 34c to 12c as expected high temperatures were revised upward to 30°C and above. From April 19, 2026 to April 20, 2026, the price of the 31°C option surged from 12.5c to 31.5c (before settling at 26.5c) due to forecasts of potentially higher temperatures. From April 19, 2026 to April 20, 2026, the price of the 28°C option plummeted from 18.5c to 1.95c as actual temperatures or forecasts have far exceeded this level.

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