This is a typical pop culture/celebrity gossip market. While the Met Gala is a major fashion event, predicting the attendance of a specific celebrity (Lady Gaga) is a niche entertainment topic rather than a broad societal issue.

April 22, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 46.5c to nearly 100c, as the actual recorded maximum temperature for the day was confirmed to be 23°C. April 22, 2026, the price of the 24°C option plummeted from 49.5c to 0.05c, because the day's temperature failed to reach the 24°C mark, entirely ruling out this outcome. April 20, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of the 24°C option previously surged from 26c to 49.5c, as updated meteorological models increasingly pointed to 24°C as the most likely high temperature. April 20, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of the 25°C option plunged from 30.5c to 17.5c, due to a slight downward revision in temperature expectations, significantly reducing the likelihood of hitting 25°C. April 20, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of the 26°C option plummeted from 25.5c to 4.95c, because weather forecasts gradually ruled out the possibility of reaching 26°C or higher.

While weather forecasting is a normal part of life, demanding the exact high temperature of a specific city on a specific day to fall within a narrow range is a relatively niche and highly specific prediction market topic.

April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of the 33°C option surged from 2.5c to 99.95c. The reason is that actual observation data on the settlement day confirmed the highest temperature reached 33°C, leading the market to fully price in this outcome. April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of the 32°C option surged from 19c to 38c, and the 33°C option spiked from 3.65c to 25.65c, while the 31°C option fell from a peak of 39.5c to 15c. The reason is that actual temperature readings on the settlement day or the latest ultra-short-term forecasts indicated even higher temperatures than previously expected. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of the 31°C option surged from 19.5c to a peak of 35.5c, and the 32°C option surged from 11c to a peak of 25c, while the 28°C option plummeted from 13c to around 3c. The reason is that, nearing the settlement date, the latest weather forecasts or real-time observations indicated a high probability of temperatures exceeding 30°C in Taipei, leading to a massive upward revision in market expectations. April 18, 2026 - April 20, 2026, no option saw a price movement of more than 10 cents, which remained within normal market fluctuation ranges.