Highest temperature in Helsinki on April 17?
Weather|$40.5k Vol|
time0 s

Highest temperature in Helsinki on April 17? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.16 20:01
Top Undervalued
+38.5¢
16°C(No)
+34.9¢
14°C(Yes)
+17.5¢
15°C(No)

Highest temperature in Helsinki on April 17? AI analysis: Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
The latest Wunderground and AccuWeather forecasts indicate that the high temperature for Helsinki Va...
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World|$192.0k Vol|
time73 days 11 hrs

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+0.7¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of April 11, 2026, with less than 80 days until expiration, the price of 'Yes' has been trading i...
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Minnesota Governor Election Winner
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Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
Democrat(Yes)
+0.5¢
Republican(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
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Highest temperature in Atlanta on April 18?
Weather|$17.4k Vol|
time23 hrs 30 mins

Highest temperature in Atlanta on April 18?

Top Undervalued
+22¢
88-89°F(No)
+19.5¢
84-85°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts (including AccuWeather and Weather.com), the highest temperatu...
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Exotics
While checking the weather is a daily routine, predicting the exact high-temperature range for a specific city on a specific future date is not something most people think about unless prompted, making it a moderately niche prediction market topic.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 18?
Weather|$14.6k Vol|
time23 hrs 30 mins

Highest temperature in Lagos on April 18?

Top Undervalued
+33¢
31°C(Yes)
+23¢
33°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest forecasts from Wunderground and other weather sources, Lagos is expected to ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
While weather forecasting is a standard derivative category in prediction markets, betting on the exact daily high temperature at a specific weather station in Lagos, Nigeria, on a random day is a niche topic that the general public would not typically think about or monitor.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between market pricing and mainstream forecasts. The prediction market assigns a 30% probability to 33°C and a 25.5% probability to 37°C or higher. Meanwhile, meteorological agencies (such as Google Weather and Wunderground) uniformly forecast scattered thunderstorms for Lagos on April 18, with highs between 31°C and 32°C. The market is severely overestimating the chance of extreme, rain-free high temperatures.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
16°C
YesNo
53.5¢
46.5¢
15¢
85¢
+38.5¢
14°C
YesNo
0.05¢
99.95¢
35¢
65¢
+34.9¢

Expand to view all 6 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Exotics
Although weather forecasting is an established niche in crypto prediction markets, betting on the exact daily high temperature of Helsinki, Finland on a specific date is somewhat fringe and novel for the general public, typically attracting only weather enthusiasts or quantitative arbitrageurs.
Movers
April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 15°C surged from 12c to 33c, while the price of 17°C plummeted from 31c to 11c. This was driven by updated meteorological models which adjusted the forecasted high temperature downwards for April 17. No options have experienced a price swing of more than 10c over the past 3 days before that. Prices had smoothly adjusted according to standard meteorological forecasts.
Divergence
The market currently assigns the highest probabilities to 16°C (34.5%) and 15°C (29%), whereas the latest official Wunderground forecasts predict highs between 54°F (12°C) and 58°F (14°C). This indicates a significant lag in market pricing, which has not yet fully incorporated the recent cooling trend in the forecast.

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