From May 22 to May 23, 2026, the price of the '27°C or below' option plummeted from 24c to around 6c, and the '28°C' price fell from 27c to about 15c. Meanwhile, the '29°C' option rose from 19.5c to 30.5c, and the '31°C' option surged from 9.5c to 23c before retracing. The reason is that as the target date approaches, meteorological forecast models gradually ruled out the possibility of lower temperatures, narrowing the forecast range precisely to around 29°C-30°C, causing funds to quickly reallocate among adjacent options.

Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a common engagement-driven topic in prediction markets. While it's not a major macro event the general public naturally ponders, it is a relatively standard liquidity-filler question within the prediction market ecosystem, keeping it from being extremely bizarre.

2026-05-22 to 2026-05-23, the price of the '31°C or higher' option plummeted from 40.5c to 3.95c, as updated weather forecasts closer to the date confirmed precipitation and ruled out extreme high temperatures. 2026-05-22 to 2026-05-23, the prices of the '27°C' and '28°C' options surged from 6c and 21.5c to 23c and 39.5c respectively, because the latest meteorological data narrowed the expected high temperature for May 24 down to the 27°C-28°C range.

Predicting the exact highest temperature for a specific city on a given day is somewhat niche. While weather prediction markets are an established subcategory, the general public rarely fixates on predicting the exact daily high at a specific weather station unless extreme weather is expected.

Between May 22 and May 23, 2026, the price of '37°C or higher' surged from 17.5c to 30.5c, and '36°C' climbed from 13c to 25c. This was driven by updated weather models and localized monitoring indicating a higher risk of extreme heat as the resolution date approaches.

There is a notable divergence. Mainstream basic forecasts (like Google's weather snippet) project a high of around 32°C for Taipei on May 24, whereas the prediction market heavily favors 35°C to 37°C or higher. This likely occurs because the market is resolving specifically at the Songshan Airport Station (RCSS), which may experience severe microclimate effects (like runway heat), making the market more sensitive to localized short-term extreme heat compared to generic city-wide forecasts.

May 22, 2026 - May 23, 2026, the price of the 28°C option surged from 22c to 37c because, as the target date approached, weather forecasting models revised their high-temperature estimates upwards, leading to significant capital inflows into this option. No other options have experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents in the last 3 days.

A standard niche prediction. While weather forecasting is universally common, betting on the exact integer degree of a daily high at a specific airport falls outside mainstream public interest, mainly attracting weather enthusiasts or data modelers.

May 22, 2026 - May 23, 2026, the price of the 31°C option surged from 26.5c to 37.5c, as updated meteorological forecasts closer to the resolution date strongly confirmed the high temperature is likely to hit exactly 31°C.