Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 10?
Weather|$180.0k Vol|
time2 hrs 45 mins

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 10? - AI Found +84.8¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 7 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+84.8¢
28°C(No)
+48.8¢
29°C(Yes)
+32.5¢
30°C or higher(Yes)

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 10? AI analysis: • +84.8¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Today is the April 10 resolution day. As Hong Kong enters daytime, actual temperatures are climbing....
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Highest temperature in Munich on April 13?
Weather|$15.6k Vol|
time3 days 2 hrs

Highest temperature in Munich on April 13?

Top Undervalued
+55.1¢
11°C or higher(No)
+39.1¢
10°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current mid-to-long term weather forecasts (e.g., AccuWeather, Google Weather) for Munich (EDDM) on ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
Predicting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a typical weather prediction market. While not uncommon in specialized betting circles, it remains a relatively niche topic that the general public and non-locals would not ordinarily think about.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 13?
Weather|$14.3k Vol|
time3 days 2 hrs

Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 13?

Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
18°C(No)
+4.5¢
20°C or higher(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on current weather forecast trends and historical climate data, the high temperature in Shangh...
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Exotics
Betting on the specific highest temperature of a city on a given day is a somewhat common niche in prediction markets, but it remains an obscure and unconventional topic for the general public.
AI Analysis
Will Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade go live on mainnet by ___ ?
Crypto|$10.6k Vol|
time265 days 19 hrs

Will Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade go live on mainnet by ___ ?

Top Undervalued
+17.4¢
September 30, 2026(Yes)
+3.4¢
June 30, 2026(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of March 29, 2026, only 2 days remain until March 31. The 'March 31' Yes price has stabilized aro...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Hedging
HYPE
This event has a direct and significant price impact on the native token HYPE. HIP-4 marks the protocol's expansion from a pure perpetuals exchange into the prediction market sector, directly raising its Total Addressable Market (TAM). The announcement already triggered a 10-15% price surge; a timely mainnet launch would be a critical bullish confirmation, while a delay could lead to a price retracement.
AI Analysis
KY-06 House Election Winner
Elections|$13.6k Vol|
time206 days 14 hrs

KY-06 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+17.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+6¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Kentucky's 6th Congressional District (KY-06) is a solidified Republican stronghold following 2022 r...
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Divergence
The current market pricing of 75.5c for the Republican party (implying a 24.5% chance of a Democratic victory) diverges from mainstream political analysts (like the Cook Political Report) who rate KY-06 as 'Solid Republican'. The mainstream consensus suggests a Republican win probability of over 90%, indicating a significant undervaluation in the market.
AI Analysis
NC-03 House Election Winner
Politics|$13.6k Vol|
time206 days 14 hrs

NC-03 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+8¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+4.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Despite a slight recent dip in market prices (Republican Yes price down to 84c), NC-03 remains a str...
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Divergence
The prediction market currently assigns an 84% probability to the Republican Party and 13% to the Democratic Party, diverging from the consensus of mainstream election forecasters (like the Cook Political Report, which rates the district as 'Safe Republican'). In safe districts, the dominant party's actual win probability is typically >95%. The market pricing is likely skewed by arbitrage flows, an over-extrapolation of general Democratic tailwinds in the midterms, or illiquidity, leading to an overestimation of an upset in this deep-red district.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
28°C
YesNo
99.75¢
0.25¢
15¢
85¢
+84.8¢
29°C
YesNo
0.2¢
99.8¢
49¢
51¢
+48.8¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of 30°C or higher rebounded sharply from 12.5c to 33.5c, while 29°C slightly retraced from 58.5c to 51.5c. This is because, as daytime progresses on the resolution day, the local temperature rising momentum is strong, increasing the market's perceived risk of the peak breaking 30°C. April 9, 2026, the price of 29°C surged from 46c to 58.5c, while 30°C or higher dropped from 27.5c to 12.5c. This is because, nearing the resolution date, the latest real-time meteorological data and short-term forecasts narrowed the probable peak temperature range, solidifying the 29°C bracket. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of 28°C plunged from 51.5c to 11c, while 29°C and 30°C or higher rebounded to over 40c, as the latest weather forecasts confirmed a southerly airstream would bring high temperatures of 29-30°C. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of 28°C surged from 16.5c to 51.5c, due to temporary uncertainty over cloud cover and a cooling easterly airstream that made the market doubt reaching 30°C. April 7, 2026, 12:00 - 17:25, the price of 30°C or higher plunged from 42.5c to 20c, as the market likely wavered on whether the peak temperature would hold at 30°C or above. April 6, 2026, 06:45 - April 7, 10:55, the price of 27°C dropped from 44c to 15c, and lower temperature options (26°C and below) also experienced significant drops of over 20c, caused by the Hong Kong Observatory's updated official forecast explicitly indicating a maximum temperature of 30°C, drastically reducing the likelihood of lower temperatures.

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