AI Signal Dashboard
Last updated: 7 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+84.8¢
28°C(No)
+48.8¢
29°C(Yes)
+32.5¢
30°C or higher(Yes)
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 10? AI analysis: • +84.8¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.
Undervalued Options Insights:
Today is the April 10 resolution day. As Hong Kong enters daytime, actual temperatures are climbing....
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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
28°C
YesNo
99.75¢
0.25¢
15¢
85¢
0¢
+84.8¢
29°C
YesNo
0.2¢
99.8¢
49¢
51¢
+48.8¢
0¢
Expand to view all 11 options
⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of 30°C or higher rebounded sharply from 12.5c to 33.5c, while 29°C slightly retraced from 58.5c to 51.5c. This is because, as daytime progresses on the resolution day, the local temperature rising momentum is strong, increasing the market's perceived risk of the peak breaking 30°C.
April 9, 2026, the price of 29°C surged from 46c to 58.5c, while 30°C or higher dropped from 27.5c to 12.5c. This is because, nearing the resolution date, the latest real-time meteorological data and short-term forecasts narrowed the probable peak temperature range, solidifying the 29°C bracket.
April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of 28°C plunged from 51.5c to 11c, while 29°C and 30°C or higher rebounded to over 40c, as the latest weather forecasts confirmed a southerly airstream would bring high temperatures of 29-30°C.
April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of 28°C surged from 16.5c to 51.5c, due to temporary uncertainty over cloud cover and a cooling easterly airstream that made the market doubt reaching 30°C.
April 7, 2026, 12:00 - 17:25, the price of 30°C or higher plunged from 42.5c to 20c, as the market likely wavered on whether the peak temperature would hold at 30°C or above.
April 6, 2026, 06:45 - April 7, 10:55, the price of 27°C dropped from 44c to 15c, and lower temperature options (26°C and below) also experienced significant drops of over 20c, caused by the Hong Kong Observatory's updated official forecast explicitly indicating a maximum temperature of 30°C, drastically reducing the likelihood of lower temperatures.