All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
28°C or higher
YesNo
25°C
YesNo
26°C
YesNo
24°C
YesNo
27°C
YesNo
23°C
YesNo
22°C
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
18°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
17 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the latest Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecast for March 19, the maximum temperature is expected to be around 26°C. With less than 24 hours until resolution, forecast accuracy is high. However, the prediction market is extremely fragmented. Specifically, the '28°C or higher' option is trading at 28.5 cents, which is a significant deviation from the official 26°C forecast (typical margin of error is ±1-2 degrees). Fair value should be heavily concentrated on 26°C, tapering normally to 25°C and 27°C. The market is pricing in a significant premium for extreme heat (28°C+) which appears irrational given the specific forecast.
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Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of '28°C or higher' surged from 10.5c to 35c before settling back to 28.5c. The reason is likely an overreaction to local 'sunny periods' forecasts or impact from short-term large buy orders, causing heat expectations to detach from rationality.
March 17, 2026, the price of the '25°C' option experienced extreme volatility, spiking from 22.5c to 39.5c instantly, then crashing back to 18.5c within hours. The reason is extreme illiquidity, where a single large trade caused massive slippage, followed by a correction as the market recognized the mispricing.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The mainstream meteorological consensus (HKO) explicitly forecasts a max temperature of around 26°C. However, the Polymarket is assigning a nearly 30% probability to '28°C or higher', which is statistically unlikely (requiring a beat of >2 degrees above forecast). This pricing structure suggests market participants are not tracking the official data source closely or are speculating on a low-probability sudden heat spike.
